Cycle Trading

Dollar:

The Dollar
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The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on Tuesday, day 21. And has since traded sideways and as yet to print a swing high.

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The dollar will need to break below the daily cycle trend line to confirm the daily cycle decline. By trading sideways, that has allowed the dollar to consolidate and made it easier for the dollar to deliver a trend line break. A peak on day 21 has locked in a right translated nature to this daily cycle. Therefore our expectation is to see the next daily cycle go on to print a higher daily cycle high.

Stocks
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Stocks peaked on day 19 and printed a lower low on Friday, day 25. The timing band for a daily cycle low runs from day 30 through day 45. So, it is possible that stocks could find support at the 50 day MA, print a half cycle low, and continue higher.

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However stocks did lose on the 10 MA on Tuesday. And the True Strength Indicator has delivered a Zero Line Crossover. A bearish Zero Line Crossover is associated with a daily cycle decline. We need to be open to the possibility that stocks could even print an early daily cycle low.

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