Gravitational Pull

July 29, 2014

The daily equity cycle aged one more day today and is beginning to feel the gravitational pull of the impending daily cycle low.

http://postimg.org/image/eas6mesz9//>

Tuesday was day 32 of the daily equity cycle. Stocks were rejected after back testing the swing high and probably set the declining cycle trend line. Stocks have yet to deliver a break of the daily cycle trend line to confirm the daily cycle decline. But the True Strength Indicator did break below the Zero Line, which often leads into the daily cycle decline.

The Transports confirmed their daily cycle decline today.

http://postimg.org/image/s55r947ab/

Like stocks, the transports daily cycle peaked on Thursday. However today they delivered a break of their daily cycle trend line to confirm their daily cycle decline.

The CRB also appears to be feeling the gravitational pull of a daily cycle low.

http://postimg.org/image/55t0k14c5/

Typically a left translated, failed daily CRB cycle peaks on or before day 8. Currently the CRB sports a day 7 peak with a swing high having formed on day 8. The CRB is just 0.68% away from forming a failed daily cycle. A break below 294.67 forms a third consecutive failed daily cycle.

And with the dollar apparently rallying out of a three year low, which we discussed here, it is no wonder that the CRB is taking it on the chin…

http://postimg.org/image/6jfk0cu63/

10 responses to “Gravitational Pull”

mika. (@mika2k1)

July 29, 2014

“And with the dollar apparently rallying out of a three year low, which we discussed here, it is no wonder that the CRB is taking it on the chin…”
==

My guess that’s all going to change tomorrow, after the GDP report.

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  July 29, 2014
  
  The dollar is at day 19 for this daily cycle and is already in its timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. So yes the dollar could very well turn lower here. The higher high today assures us of a right translated nature to this daily cycle. Therefore we can expect to see the next daily cycle go on to print a higher daily cycle high.
  
  Reply
  1. mika. (@mika2k1)
    
    July 29, 2014
    
    “The higher high today assures us of a right translated nature to this daily cycle. Therefore we can expect to see the next daily cycle go on to print a higher daily cycle high.”
    ==
    
    Cycle lengths vary, and even RT cycles can print a lower low.
    
    As concerns the CRB Index, here’s the chart of the day:
3kpd

July 29, 2014

How do I send you a private email?

Reply
1. mika. (@mika2k1)
  
  July 29, 2014
  
  Not sure who you are addressing. Are you asking me, or LM?
  
  Reply
  1. 3kpd
    
    July 29, 2014
    
    Sorry Mika…that was to LM and he/she replied already….thanx
mika. (@mika2k1)

July 29, 2014

Variation on a theme:

$DXY chart
https://www.tradingview.com/x/yRUTQTYA/

Reply
1. mika. (@mika2k1)
  
  July 30, 2014
  
  A parabolic advance guarantees a crash, always!
  The Dollar is setting up for a hard landing.
  
  $DXY chart
  https://www.tradingview.com/x/8d05s0IT/
  
  Reply
  1. likesmoneystudies
    
    July 30, 2014
    
    http://postimg.org/image/xlqawvgox/
    
    windows 7 screenshot
mika. (@mika2k1)

July 30, 2014

LM, I did my own quick monthly cycle analysis and I’m getting results different than yours. My chart shows shorter monthly cycles (17-22 months) with the next low likely due towards the end of the year in October/November. Looking at the chart and the weak performance of this current monthly cycle I strongly suspect we will break below the previous cycle low at ~$73.

Monthly Cycle $DXY chart:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/7gO48rrV/

The even larger yearly cycles seem to last about 8-10 years.

Reply