It’s Getting Late

July 1, 2014

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The dollar may have printed a daily cycle low today. We discussed here yesterday that since it is unlikely to have a daily dollar cycle stretch past 30 days that Monday was day 16 of a failed daily cycle. The narrow range day today eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break hove 79.89 forms a swing low.

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At 17 days, the dollar is just one day shy of the timing band for a daily cycle low. The failed daily cycle indicates that the dollar has begun its intermediate cycle decline. With the weekly cycle at 8 weeks that leaves another 10 to 14 weeks to print an intermediate cycle low. And if the dollar is to continue into the intermediate decline our expectation will be to see the dollar peak by day 8.

The precious metals seems to have been waiting on the dollar to rally before correcting. The Miners are getting late in their daily cycle and today may have marked the cycle peak.

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Tuesday was day 23 for the daily Miner cycle. Today’s bearish reversal has made it easy to form a swing high. A break below 26.15 forms a swing high and quite likely marks the daily cycle decline. Since it is getting late in the Miner daily cycle we can expect this daily decline to be short in duration.

So we have the dollar about to rally out of a failed daily cycle with the expectation of a brief rally before continuing into an intermediate decline. Combined with an expectation for the Miner’s decline to be brief in duration before the next leg up.

The pieces are coming together …

http://imageshack.com/a/img840/3336/kcct.jpg

9 responses to “It’s Getting Late”

Jim

July 1, 2014

Now that the whole world is expecting a drop back to $1280 it seems too easy.

Reply
Sabre Sbr

July 2, 2014

gold follows the yen not the dxy

Reply
Trader Gal

July 2, 2014

So…….I guess that takes the May 8th “3 year cycle low” off the table then? Now flipping the analysis to suggest that USD is headed into another 8 weeks lower??

Wow…..talk about getting that one wrong or? Is there still any chance of that?

It just seems odd that USD would have made a higher high on daily back on June 5th ( breaking the trend of lower highs and lower lows ) only to now move “even lower”?

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  July 2, 2014
  
  Trader Gal,
  
  My primary framework is that the 3 year low printed on May 8th.
  
  However, we need to be open to the possibility that if the current intermediate fails then that will extend the three year decline.
  
  We need the weekly triangle consolidation to be resolved in order to clear things up on the status of the dollar’s three year cycle.
  
  Reply
  1. Trader Gal
    
    July 2, 2014
    
    As the equities cycles / run has obviously been stretched ( thanks Central Banks! ) is it not possible that a swing low here “could” mean a 36 day cycle – that being the “first” right translated cycle off the May 8th low?
    
    It just seems to line up better with consideration that this market “must” fall /correct in some meaningful way soon?
  2. pk34145
    
    July 2, 2014
    
    How does the EURO fit into all this analysis of the $USD 3 year cycle? Did the EURO make an Intermediate Cycle Low on June 6th? If so, then the EURO is headed higher, and the $USD is still headed down into the 3 year low. Where is the EURO in its cycle?
likesmoneystudies

July 2, 2014

Let’s take a look at that tonight

Reply
3kpd

July 2, 2014

Is there a new password for July?

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  July 2, 2014
  
  I will be sending out a new password tonight
  
  Reply