Cycle Trading

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The previous daily cycle for bond peaked at the end of May on day 12 and then declined to a day 20 low that found support at the 50 day MA.

In real time day 20 looked like a daily cycle low. Following the day 20 low bonds danced along the 50 MA before finally spiking down on day 26. If day 20 was the daily cycle low, then bonds cannot print a failed daily cycle that breaks to new highs. So instead of June 19th being day 6 we are forced to label it day 26 and a daily cycle low. That makes Wednesday day 4 for of a new daily cycle.

Bonds have been obscuring their daily cycle count over the past 2 weeks. So it beneficial to back things out to look at the bigger picture.

We see that the intermediate bond cycle peaked on week 21. A weekly swing high and trend line break formed the following week signaling the intermediate cycle decline. Bonds printed the lowest point last week since the week 21 peak. and this week a weekly swing low has formed. A clear and convincing break of the declining weekly trend line will confirm a new intermediate cycle.