Cycle Trading

The Dollar
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The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on June 5th which was day 19. It is possible that the swing high that printed the next day was a daily cycle low.

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The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday since the day 19 peak. That broke below the day 20 low. Since the dollar did not break above the day 19 high this appears to be an extended daily cycle low. Friday formed a swing low and is likely day 1 of a new daily cycle. A break to new highs will confirm Thursday as a daily cycle low.

Stocks

A swing high off the day 39 peak should lead to a daily cycle decline. Stocks did not deliver the expected trend line break.

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Breaking to new highs forces us to label a 42 RT cycle. That makes Friday day 6 of the new daily cycle. This suggests that stocks may move into a run away move into an intermediate cycle top. As we will see in the next chart, stocks have already entered the timing band to print an intermediate cycle low. Therefore that odds are good to see this daily cycle form as a left translated cycle that fails. That sets an expectation to see this daily cycle peak on or before day 20.

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