Cycle Trading

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Gold printed a higher daily cycle high on Monday.

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Monday was day 9 for the daily gold cycle and gold printed another higher daily cycle high. Then gold was rejected by the 50 day moving average and printed a bearish reversal. A break below 1270.50 forms a swing high and a trend line break would signal that the daily cycle is in decline. But gold has yet to break above the declining trend line to confirm a new daily cycle. It will be a cyclical anomaly for the daily cycle to roll over without a declining trend line break from the preceding cycle..

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The intermediate gold cycle peaked on week 11. Gold formed a swing low last week off the week 22 low. Twenty two weeks is right in the timing band for an intermediate cycle low. The weekly swing low and trend line break signals a new intermediate cycle. We would like to see a clear and convincing trend line break before labeling week 22 the intermediate cycle low.

So gold has yet to confirm a new daily cycle but is starting to deliver signals of a new intermediate cycle. If gold breaks above Monday’s high of 1285.10 that would negate this bearish reversal and provide further confirmation of a new intermediate cycle.