Cycle Trading

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The last two intermediate cycles for the CRB index ran 17 weeks and 28 weeks respectively.

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Many times a stretched weekly cycle is followed by a shorter weekly cycle. Which means that the CRB may have printed a 17 week intermediate cycle low 3 weeks ago.

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Looking at the CRB’s daily cycle we can see the the CRB’s intermediate cycle peaked on day 24 in April. Then declined into a stretched 35 day daily cycle low. Now the current daily cycle peaked on day 9 and may have left behind a shortened 13 day daily cycle low on Wednesday. Thursday formed a swing low. A break of the (blue) declining intermediate trend line confirms a new daily and a new intermediate cycle.

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Agriculture is similar where it peaked in April. And now appears to be forming a bullish weekly reversal here on week 18.

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The daily cycle has formed a swing low off the daily 38 low. A break of the declining trend line confirms both a new daily and new intermediate cycle.

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At 23 weeks the Miners are getting in the later stages of its intermediate cycle. Since the Miners printed a lower weekly low this week, the earliest a weekly swing low can form will be next week.

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The current daily cycle peaked on day 10 and printed its lowest point since on day 26. A swing low did form on Thursday. Of course we want to see some follow through to make this swing low clear and convincing.

In summary, the CRB, agriculture, and the Miners all are in the timing band to print intermediate cycle lows. All three of them have printed daily swing lows on Thursday and await a declining trend line break to confirm a new daily cycle, and quite likely a new intermediate cycle.