Cycle Trading

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Everybody and their brother was talking about the triangle consolidation in gold and hoping for a bullish break that would affirm the gold bull as gold launched higher.

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Gold broke lower instead. The current daily cycle peaked on day 7 indicating a left translated daily cycle was in the making. The bearish break on day 22 sends gold in a clear and convincing way into its primary decline into a daily cycle low. Gold is in its timing band to print a daily cycle low. Gold should print a daily cycle low over the next 6 days. This break lower managed to break below the previous daily cycle low. Which means that gold is continuing its intermediate cycle decline.

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Gold’s weekly cycle peaked on week 11 and currently sits on week 21. Gold’s timing band for a weekly cycle low runs 18 – 24 weeks, which means gold is in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low.

So gold should print a daily cycle low over then next week, or so. And because gold is on week 22, this new daily cycle has the probability of also marking the intermediate cycle low as well.

There is one thing that we need to keep an eye on as gold prints its daily cycle low.

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The dollar printed another higher high on Tuesday. This continues shifting the odds of this cycle forming in a right translated manner. The other concern today was the the dollar pierced the 200 day MA. A close above the 200 day MA sends a strong signal that the three year low in the dollar has been left behind.

And that would add a joker to the deck for gold …

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