Cycle Trading

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The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday since peaking on Day 7. The dollar formed a swing low on Friday that saw the dollar get reject by the 50 day MA. If the dollar were still declining into a three year cycle low then I believe that the gravitational pull of the impending three year low should have caused this cycle to fail. If the dollar does continue lower and Thursday’s low falls, then there is little wiggle room before losing the previous low of 79.39. A break below that will signal a continuation of the three year cycle decline.

Stocks

Stocks printed a bullish reversal on Monday and rallied into Friday.

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Stocks printed a higher high on Friday, which was day 14 for the daily equity cycle. We have discussed previously that our cyclical expectation is to see stocks follow a right translated cycle by setting a higher daily cycle high. But we see that stocks have been struggling with this resistance zone for over two months now. A peak prior to day 20 would be consistent with a left translated cycle which would indicate that the intermediate cycle is in decline.

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