The first daily cycle of the current intermediate dollar cycle printed a right translated cycle low on April 10th. Our expectation was to see the current daily cycle go on to print a higher daily cycle high. That did not happen.
The dollar was turned back by the declining 50 MA at day 7. The dollar formed a swing high and was accompanied by a trend line break to signal a daily cycle decline. The bearish zero line crossover on the TSI also confirms the cycle decline. I believe that this anomaly can be attributed to the triangle consolidation that the dollar has been caught in for the past 7 months.
Once the dollar breaks out of this consolidation it will embark on a strong and trending move. And what I see on the three year cycle suggests that this will be a bullish breakout.
Stocks
To begin our review of stocks we need to start off looking at the weekly chart for the NASDAQ. The NAS has been leading the rally out of the 2009 low and now is leading the current decline.
To begin our review of stocks we need to start off looking at the weekly chart for the NASDAQ. The NAS has been leading the rally out of the 2009 low and now is leading the current decline.
The NAS printed a 32 week right translated intermediate low the first week of February. The new weekly cycle peaked on week 4 and declined right into last week, which was week 10. The NAS printed a weekly bullish reversal, but not before breaking below the week 32 cycle low printed in February. The break below the previous weekly low signals a failed weekly cycle. A failed weekly cycle signals a yearly cycle decline. Going forward our expectation for this new daily cycle is to see the NAS form a left translated cycle and break below last Tuesday’s low as it declines into its intermediate cycle low.
The NAS formed a clear and convincing swing high on Friday which is consistent with our expectations. And this helps us to better understand what is unfolding on the daily S&P chart.
Stocks printed a 46 day right translated daily cycle low on April 11th. Stocks then went on to peak on day 6 after running into strong resistance at the 1880 level. Stocks formed a swing high on Thursday. The clear and convincing follow through on Friday signals that stocks have entered into their daily cycle decline. Our expectation normally is to see a right translated daily cycle be followed by a daily cycle that prints a higher daily cycle high. However there is past precedence of that not happening as stocks enter into an intermediate cycle decline.
The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services
The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker
To subscribe: http://likesmoneysubscriptionservices.wordpress.com/
For subscribers: the full Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services at http://likesmoney.wordpress.com/
You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report
Cycle Trading 
Leave a comment