Cycle Trading

The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on day 16 and has since dropped like a rock.

Normally a day 16 peak all but guarantees a right translated cycle. However, the dollar is just $0.31 away from printing a failed daily cycle. A failed daily cycle would paint us into a corner and force us to reevaluate things.

In real time week 20 looks like an intermediate cycle low. But with the prospect of a failed daily cycle occurring at the tail end of a triangle consolidation makes this look like an extended weekly cycle is forming.

Stocks also appear to be trying to paint us into a corner.

The day 35 pivot in real time does look like a daily cycle low. The corresponding break to new highs appeared to confirm a new daily cycle. The break to the low printed on Tuesday, April 8 looked as if an early failed daily cycle occurred. Which would have been day 8 of a new daily cycle.

However, the swing low formed today gives the appearance of a new daily cycle beginning. Since a new daily cycle cannot fail and then go on to print a new high, a break to new highs would make Tuesday the daily cycle low at day 43.

If it looks like a …