Cycle Trading

The dollar printed a bearish reversal on Friday. It followed up on Monday forming a swing high.

The dollar is one day shy of entering its timing band for a daily cycle low. The swing high formed today may have just set the daily cycle high. The dollar stopped short of breaking the daily cycle trend line to confirm the daily cycle decline.

A close below the 50 MA should send the dollar into its daily cycle decline.

Contrary to expectations, the weakness in the dollar did not translate into strength in gold.

Gold failed to capitalize on the dollar weakness today. With gold being so early in its daily cycle it should have the energy to break through the 50 MA. The fact that gold could not break through on the weak dollar might mean that gold is still caught in its intermediate cycle decline.

Platinum and Palladium also failed to take advantage of the weak dollar. And while technically there is nothing wrong with gold’s chart, there are some concerns with the following charts.

Platinum formed a clear and convincing swing high and trend line break today.

Palladium also formed a clear and convincing swing high and trend line break. It also dropped for a whopping 3.26%

Getting back to the dollar. A day 16 peak locks in a right translated nature to the first daily dollar cycle. So after a decline we can expect to see to see the dollar break to a higher high. It seems as if the precious metals are already sniffing out another higher high for the dollar.