Cycle Trading

Despite the bearish reversal on the dollar, gold and the Miners still seem to be still seeking their daily cycle lows.

On the other hand, after peaking on day 5 the dollar drifted sideways for the next 7 sessions, being contained by the 50 day MA.

Monday saw the dollar break above the 50 MA only to see it be rejected by it and close lower for the day. The lower close also appears to have broken the daily cycle trend line signaling that the daily cycle decline has begun.

On the other hand, stocks broke above the mini trend line today signaling a new daily cycle.

The daily equity cycle peaked on day 31 and printed the lowest point on Thursday following that peak. That was day 35, which is in the timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low formed on Friday along with the trend line break today makes Monday day two of a new daily cycle. Final confirmation will be delivered with stocks break to a new daily cycle high.

On the other hand, bonds may have printed their daily cycle high today.

Bonds appeared to have peaked on Thursday when a swing high formed on Friday. Then Monday saw bonds break out to a new daily cycle high only to print a bearish reversal, closing lower for the day. Bonds have now closed lower for 2 consecutive days. A break below 108.34 forms another swing high and a break of the daily cycle trend line will confirm that the daily cycle is in decline.