Cycle Trading

The current gold intermediate cycle began January 2nd and the first daily cycle bottomed on January 28th. The second daily cycle ran for the month of February.

February 28th was day 20 for gold’s daily cycle. Gold may have left behind a daily cycle low on February 28. A swing high with a trend line break in the timing band for a daily cycle low does satisfy the criteria for a daily cycle low. A bullish TSI crossover would confirm a new daily cycle.

Since we lack a bullish TSI crossover we now await to see gold will make one more push lower or break out to new highs. A break out to a new high confirms day 20 as the daily cycle low making Monday day 6 of the new daily cycle.

A push lower makes Monday day 26, which is getting towards the latter part of golds daily cycle timing band. But being so late in the timing band, one more push lower will likely reverse quickly into a new daily cycle.

Silver did make a lower low on Monday.

Monday was also day 26 for silver’s daily cycle. Silver too is in the latter part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. The lower low today has eased the parameters for forming a daily cycle low. A break above 21.06 forms a daily cycle low and a break of the declining trend line confirms a new daily cycle.

Perhaps both silver and gold were waiting on the dollar to break lower before beginning the new daily cycles.

Monday was day 13 for the dollar’s daily cycle. After the big drop on Thursday the dollar seems to be working off some of the oversold conditions before continuing lower. At 13 days, the dollar as another 5 more days before entering its timing band for a daily cycle low which can ten extend for another 7 days.

Stocks were weak on Monday.

Stocks formed a swing high off the day 21 peak. A break of the daily cycle trend line will signal a daily cycle decline.