Cycle Trading

Our question regarding the dollar’s daily cycle from last night still remains unanswered. Our framework calls for Friday, 2/28 to be day 7 of a failed daily cycle. However, we need to keep an open mind that the 28th actually marked a 24 day daily cycle low.

Another signal that Friday was the daily cycle low would be if the True Strength Indicator breaks above the zero line. A bullish zero line TSI break signals a new daily cycle. And as we discussed last night, a break of the declining blue trend line confirms Friday as the daily cycle low. However a reversal and a break to new lows maintains our framework that Friday was day 7.

We are also waiting on gold to reveal its true intentions.

Friday was day 20 for gold’s daily cycle. A break below 13191.30 indicates that gold’s daly cycle low has yet to print. That would make today day 23. However a break above 1354.60 indicates that Friday was a right translated 20 day, daily cycle low.

And what I see in the Miners supports the notion that gold left behind a daily cycle low on Friday.

If the Miners are still in an uptrend then they should continue to print higher highers and higher lows. And in an uptrend, the TSI also tends to print higher highs and higher lows. Generally speaking a bullish TSI crossover below the zero line indicates a new daily cycle. The TSI has crossed below the zero line on Friday. The True Strength Indicator delivered bullish crossover on Wednesday, which also was a higher low. Now a price break of the declining trend line confirms the new daily cycle.