Cycle Trading

The daily dollar cycle peaked on day 6. Friday, day 7 saw the buck not only form a swing high, but also break below the previous daily cycle low forming a failed daily cycle.

http://yfrog.com/ghngp4j

A surprise in a price series tends to express itself in the direction of the trend. This is the second such downside surprise in just over a month leaving little doubt that the dollar has entered its three year cycle decline. And at 7 days, the dollar can decline for another 10 to 17 days for a daily cycle low is due.

Stocks

After consolidating in the 1840-1850 resistance zone stocks managed to print a new all time on high on Friday.

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http://yfrog.com/0nkzsfj

Friday was day 16 for the daily equity cycle. While this daily cycle has been developing bullishly, it could still resolve in a failed daily cycle. New highs set after day 20 will shift the likelihood of this daily cycle forming in a right translated manner. Despite the new all time high, the True Strength Indicator still has a bearish divergence. We need to be wary of a possible bull trap. The break to a new high allows us to draw a trend line here. A break of the trend line will signal a daily cycle decline.

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