Cycle Trading

The CRB Index has been on a tear the past 4 weeks. It just may have topped on Monday.

Monday was day 21 for the CRB Index and a bearish reversal printed. The CRB is in its timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. A break below 288.80 forms a swing high. Then a break of the daily cycle trend line confirms the daily cycle decline.

On to the dollar.

Last night we looked at the dollar’s daily chart, so this morning I want to look at the weekly chart.

The intermediate dollar cycle peaked on week 2. It has failed to break above that weekly high and now on week 16 it is threatening to break below the intermediate cycle trend line. A break below the weekly trend line signals the intermediate cycle decline.

And that trend line break may be just what the precious metals are waiting on …

A quick look at the precious metals shows us that they are largely bumping up against resistance. Gold has already broken above the resistance and perhaps is foreshadowing the move by the precious metals sector.

I suspect a bearish break of the dollar’s weekly trend line will ignite the metals …

(Editor’s note. Due to my schedule, it is not likely that I will be able to post a report tonight.)