Cycle Trading

Gold broke below its daily cycle trend line today, thereby joining the party of the other precious metals in a daily cycle decline.

Since platinum and palladium both began their daily cycles ahead of gold, we will watch to see if they bottom ahead of gold as well.

Gold’s daily cycle peaked on day 17, formed a swing high the next day and broke below the daily cycle trend line on day 20 confirming a daily cycle decline. The day 17 peak suggests that this daily cycle will form as a right translated cycle printing a higher daily cycle low.

Its no coincident to me that gold confirms a daily cycle decline as the dollar declares a new daily cycle.

Last night it appeared that the dollar was forming a bear flag. The bullish breakout and declining trend break helps to confirm today as day 4 of a new daily cycle.

Now a few observations on NATGAS

I worked up a few charts on NATGAS on Monday night, but then left them on the “cutting room floor”

Only two other times over the past the past 10 years has NATGAS pierced the upper monthly bollinger band. Both times preceded a big decline. And currently NATGAS has once again pierced the upper monthly bollinger band.

The other observation I made on Monday was that the previous three times NATGAS pierced the upper weekly bollinger band that preceded a weekly decline. Currently NATGAS has once again pierced the upper weekly bollinger band.

Now let’s look at the same charts today.

The monthly candle is already leaving behind a long shadow on its monthly candle.

But the weekly view is more dramatic …

This is week 25 and NATGAS is printing an ugly bearish reversal. It appears that NATGAS is ready to decline into a weekly cycle low.

The daily cycle shows a bearish reversal printed today, day 14. Now a break below 4.90 forms a daily swing high. Which will likely lead into a daily cycle decline and possibly turn into an intermediate cycle decline.