Cycle Trading

The dollar has rocketed out of its intermediate cycle low over the past two weeks.

But that rally has been halted by firm resistance at the 81.50 level. At day 10, the odds have started to shift towards this daily cycle forming as a right translated cycle. A break above 81.50 keeps alive the possibility of a three year cycle low being left behind.

Stocks

I want to begin our discussion of the daily equity cycle by taking a look at the transports.

The transports have formed a swing high and had a trend line break which indicates a daily cycle decline. While Friday saw the trannies print a gain, oil may be in the process of forming an intermediate low. If so, that will certainly provide a headwind for the transports.

The daily equity cycle currently has a day 15 peak, which keeps alive the possibility of this cycle forming as a left translated cycle. A break to new highs here shifts the odds of this cycle forming as a right translated cycle. However, keep in mind that this is the third daily cycle of this intermediate cycle. And because of that this will likely be the terminal daily cycle of this weekly cycle.

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