Cycle Trading

While the dollar closed higher today, it still appears to be consolidating last weeks rally.

Tuesday was day 7 for the daily dollar cycle and the dollar could be forming a mini-bull flag.

Meanwhile bonds continued selling off.

We see that bonds broke below the intermediate trend line which confirms an intermediate decline. With a day 5 peak and and today being day 14, a left translated nature has been assured. There is a good likelihood of breaking below the previous cycle low of 124.27 during this daily cycle decline.

And with bonds currently on week 11, that leave plenty of time for one more failed, daily cycle to print during this intermediate cycle.

Palladium just may have left behind a daily cycle low on Friday.

Of course, I would like to see a clear and convincing break but Friday was day 21 for palladiums’s daily cycle and palladium breached the declining cycle trend line. With some follow through and we could label Friday a daily cycle low. And with palladium tending to lead gold, this could be a bullish signal for gold.

Gold’s daily cycle peaked on day 9 with Tuesday being day 15. Gold will need to print a daily cycle low within the next few days to lock in a right translated nature to this daily cycle. With that in mind it is noteworthy to see that the True Strength Indicator has reached a level that has initiated the three previous daily cycle lows. As usual, we will keep a look out for a swing low to possibly mark the daily cycle low.