Cycle Trading

The dollar peaked in early July. Since then the trend has been lower. The dollar printed three consecutive left translated, failed daily cycles. The most recent failed cycle was stretched at 32 days. The raises the possibility of sellers being exhausted and for something more than an oversold bounce to occur.

Since most left translated daily cycles peak by day 8, the dollar will need to peak by Tuesday for this pattern of lower highs and lower lows to continue. If the dollar rallies past day 8 that will the shift odds of this being the first daily cycle of a new intermediate cycle.

The dollar did form a swing high on Friday. A break below the daily cycle trend line would confirm the daily cycle decline. But you will notice that the dollar closed well off the lows, suggesting the dollar is gathering itself for another push higher.

Stocks

Stocks have rallied 3.46% since the intra-day low on Wednesday.

Wednesday was day 29 for the daily equity cycle, which is one day shy of the normal timing band for a daily cycle low. Thursday’s impulsive move higher formed a swing low and breached the daily cycle trend line in a clear and convincing manner. That confirms a new daily cycle. Since the previous cycle formed as a right translated cycle, our cyclical expectation is to see this new daily cycle go on to print a higher daily cycle high.

Below is the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker. This is a weekly feature for subscribers that tracks the daily, intermediate and yearly cycles. The first number is the current cycle peak and the second number is the current cycle count.

Let’s look at the dollar for example:
05/06 – The dollar’s current daily cycle peak is day 5. The dollar printed day 6 on Friday.

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