The daily equity cycle broke above the declining cycle trend line on Monday and provided follow through today. That confirms that day 46 set the daily cycle low.
This was the 4th daily cycle of this intermediate equity cycle. It clearly broke below the intermediate cycle trend line heading into its daily cycle low.
A break below the intermediate cycle trend line is a requirement to form an intermediate cycle low.
But we have a cycle anomaly because this fourth cycle did not form as a left translated, failed daily cycle. It as a right translated daily cycle, printing a higher high and higher low.
What we need to determine is if this new daily cycle is part of the on-going intermediate cycle or is this a new intermediate cycle.
The intermediate equity cycle peaked on week 27 and printed a low on week 32. A week 32 low is beyond the normal timing band for an intermediate cycle low.
The current equity decline does “look” like an intermediate cycle decline. What is lacking is a failed daily cycle . If this current daily cycle breaks above the previous daily cycle high, then we will label day 46 as the intermediate cycle low. That will make this week — week 2 of the new intermediate cycle
The daily dollar cycle appears to be in the process of topping.
Tuesday was day 14 for the daily dollar cycle. The dollar did reverse higher today. The current volatility reminds me of how the dollar topped during its previous daily cycle. The TSI, which does a nice job spotting tops, already boasts a bearish crossover.
And when the dollar does roll over, I expect gold to break above the 1250 resistance level on its way to forming a right translated daily cycle.







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