Toast …

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From (http://thefinancialphysician.com)

The dollar is toast. Today saw the daily cycle for the dollar fail in a spectacular fashion.

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Thursday was day 26 for the daily dollar cycle. The dollar sliced through the 82.50 support and broke below the previous daily cycle low producing a failed daily cycle. This is significant because a failed daily cycle heralds an intermediate cycle decline is unfolding.

Notice that the prior daily cycle that bottomed on May 1st (a) also was a failed daily cycle, but that marked the intermediate cycle low. What is really significant is that this is the first daily cycle of a new intermediate cycle and it has now failed.

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So we have a failed daily cycle on week 5 which also marks a failed intermediate cycle as well. That signals that the remaining daily cycles will form as left translated daily cycles until the weekly cycle low which normally occurs around week 20. However, given the fact that the prior weekly cycle ran short at 13 weeks, cycles tend to balance themselves out and it is certainly possible to see this weekly cycle extend. So we can see the dollar selling off into September or even October. And considering that this is the third intermediate cycle for the yearly cycle, this will also likely mean that this will result in a yearly cycle low.

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Equities just may have printed a daily cycle low today. Thursday was day 34 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks tagged the intermediate cycle trend line and reversed higher into the close. A break above 1619.32 forms a swing low. A break of the declining (red) trend line confirms a new daily cycle.

I know that following a right translated daily cycle our cycle methodology expects to see this new daily cycle print higher high. However, we saw last year that stocks failed to make a higher high on the fifth daily cycle and that ushered in last year’s yearly cycle decline.

(By the way, I believe that we will see stocks break above 1700 before an intermediate sell off begins. We will need to keep an eye on the selling on strength numbers going forward. )

We discussed earlier this week how the corrections during this intermediate cycle were in a range from 36 – 61 points. Today brought the correction to 89 points and broke that pattern. That is another indicator that an intermediate cycle decline will take place during the next daily cycle.

Gold printed a new daily cycle high today.

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That raises the likelihood that this will also be a right translated daily cycle, the second in a row. With the dollar rolling over into an intermediate cycle decline that is also a yearly cycle decline.

I believe soon there will be recognition the dollar is toast.
When that happens …

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6 gold safety

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14 responses to “Toast …”

  1. ragingrooster Avatar
    ragingrooster

    Stock have to get above 1692 to form a swing? Thats a typo right?

    1. likesmoneystudies Avatar
      likesmoneystudies

      Good catch

      It was suppose to say 1619.32
      I will update, thanks.

    1. ragingrooster Avatar
      ragingrooster

      thats because you are looking at the august contract only.

  2. vorfahrt Avatar
    vorfahrt

    Hmmm, looks like the only thing cratering right now is gold 😉 That’s how it looks like when a bull market has ended. Not even a falling US$ can get anything going any more. Besides, I’m not so sure the US$ will fall meaningful from here at all.

    1. likesmoneystudies Avatar
      likesmoneystudies

      The dollar’s drop on Thursday was very significant. Next week should see the dollar rally. That rally will be short lived. Gold began a daily cycle decline today. Gold is still consolidating that big drop so I am not expecting much from gold after the next daily cycle … I’ll have more to say in the Weekend Report

  3. Dima Avatar
    Dima

    Hey, I’m new here and I have a question:

    why isn’t it possible that this failed daily cycle in the dollar was only another daily cycle in the previous intermediate cycle (which will mean that we are in week 17)?

    1. likesmoneystudies Avatar
      likesmoneystudies

      Dima,

      You may be new here, but your question gets right to the heart of the matter 🙂

      A failed daily cycle leads to an intermediate cycle decline. An intermediate cycle decline is characterized by lower highs and lower lows.
      At day 16 of this daily cycle, the dollar just left behind a failed daily cycle, broke the declining weekly cycle trend line and printed a higher high.
      These all confirm a new intermediate cycle making this the first daily cycle of a new intermediate cycle.

      It is very rare to see the first daily cycle of a new intermediate cycle break below the the previous daily cycle low. But that is what we have now.
      The dollar is in trouble. The reason why its not much lower is because its the least ugliest of the bunch.
      The problems with the dollar will become more noticeable as it heads into the yearly cycle low and three year low.
      Part of what we will see is more volatility in the equity markets.
      By the way, bonds are in big trouble as well. I cover bonds in the Weekend Rport

      1. Dima Avatar
        Dima

        thank you!

  4. likesbullmarkets Avatar
    likesbullmarkets

    LM for some reasone I stopped receiving email updates about 2 weeks ago. I cant seem to figure out how to get them again.

    1. likesmoneystudies Avatar
      likesmoneystudies

      You stopped receiving email updates for this site or the Weekend report site?

      1. likesbullmarkets Avatar
        likesbullmarkets

        both

  5. likesbullmarkets Avatar
    likesbullmarkets

    this cycle in gold failed to make a higher high. Isnt that a problem ?

    1. likesmoneystudies Avatar
      likesmoneystudies

      Likesbullmarkets,

      It is troublesome that gold failed to make a higher high here. However I believe that gold is still consolidating from the final panic low in April. I think we will see gold consolidate in a triangle pattern. Once the equity markets roll over, I think that the liquidity will then flow into precious metals.
      But until gold forms a monthly swing low, I suspect that gold will continue to frustrate us.

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