Gut Check Time …

April 3, 2013

Gold and the Miners extended their yearly cycle declines which must have felt like a punch to the stomach for those who hold longs.

We had speculated that the Febuary low was a yearly cycle low, but were waiting on confirmation.
Wednesday’s break below the February low of 1555.1 means that this is a continuation of the yearly cycle decline.

The Miners also confirmed another failed daily cycle on Wednesday by breaking below the previous daily cycle low.

Wednesday was Day 19 for the daily Miner cycle.
Like gold, we were waiting on confirmation of a new yearly cycle.
Today’s sell off has continued the yearly cycle decline.

Wednesday was day 12 for the daily dollar cycle.

The dollar reversed again today and appears to have set a declining cycle trend line.
Should the dollar break above the declining trend line over the next few days then that would lock in a right translated daily cycle.

Should the dollar continue lower respecting the declining cycle trend line then we will watch for a break of the (red) daily cycle trend line to confirm the daily cycle decline. This scenario leaves the day 8 peak still intact with a left translated daily cycle is still in play

Wednesday was day 4 for the daily EURO cycle.
A swing low has formed but more confirmation is needed.
A break above the declining intermediate cycle trend line confirms a new daily cycle and a new intermediate cycle.

Gold is late in the daily cycle.
The Euro is late in the daily cycle.
If the dollar’s daily cycle topped on day 8, then we may have an intermediate cycle decline on the dollar in play.

I know that its tough to hold them but let’s face it,

This ain’t no pony ride …

8 responses to “Gut Check Time …”

Paul_K

April 3, 2013

Thanks LM. Good report. Thank you for including the analysis on the Euro. I especially paid attention to: “Gold is late in the daily cycle. The Euro is late in the daily cycle”.

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daniele

April 4, 2013

Dollar made a new high just now 83,32.So no ICL has begun.Quite a mess…………

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1. likesmoneystudies
  
  April 4, 2013
  
  Daniele,
  
  Quite right. A day 13 high virtually locks in a right translated nature to the current daily dollar cycle.
  
  Reply
pimacanyon

April 4, 2013

Likesmoney,

Great analysis as always!

Question about gold’s yearly cycle: There’s been some concern that if the yearly cycle fails, that could mean the end of the gold bull because that would imply that the 8 year cycle is in decline and that it peaked in only 2 years. However, I suggest another possibility: If the yearly cycle fails, couldn’t that mean that the 8 year cycle was moving down into its half cycle low? In fact, if the 8 year cycle has a half cycle low, wouldn’t it be NORMAL for the last yearly cycle to fail as it’s moving down into that half cycle low?

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1. likesmoneystudies
  
  April 4, 2013
  
  Pima, A half-cycle low for the 8 year cycle is an intriguing idea that I will want to spend some time with it before commenting.
  
  Alex, Gold never breached the declining intermediate cycle trend line after emerging from the February low.
  Because of this, gold has not confirmed the new intermediate cycle.
  
  Gold also has yet to for a monthly swing low and declining monthly trend line break, therefore there is no confirmation on a yearly cycle low.
  
  And now that gold has exceeded February’s low, the yearly cycle has been extended.
  
  (Forgive me for using charts from the Weekend Report, but they show the aforementioned trend lines and was readily available.) 🙂
  
  Reply
ALEX

April 4, 2013

May I add to PIMAs thoughts above …

Does Febs lows being breached necessarily mean that the ‘YRLY CYLE LOW FAILED’…or could it mean we move it fwd to NOW, and if GOLD reverses, we Now have The yearly Cycle Low in March ? Feb was an additional DCL or something like that?

Thanks L.M.

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ALEX

April 4, 2013

That’s a good answer ,and good news to me,
Thanks!

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Weekend Thread / April 6 – 7, 2013

April 6, 2013

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