Cycle Trading

Stocks still stumbled on day 17 of the daily equity cycle.

Thursday saw stocks print their lowest close since peaking on day 13.
While stocks may still make another push lower, please notice the Buying on Strength (B.O.W.) numbers.
The B.O.W. ‘s is suggesting that this is likely a mid-cycle correction.

Gold continued to grind higher on Thursday.

Thursday was day 20 for gold’s daily cycle.
While gold’s current daily cycle peak is on day 3, gold had its highest daily cycle close for the current daily cycle.
With each passing day, gold’s daily cycle gets older and becomes more likely to see a swing high form.
Having said that, I think that gold will make a push to test the 50 MA before rolling over.
Should that happen, then gold would lock in a right translated daily cycle which would signal that the yearly cycle low was left behind on February 21.

The Miners are showing signs of life as well by closing above the 360 level for the first time in the past three weeks.

Thursday was day 11 for the daily Miner cycle and the Miners printed a higher high.
The Miners are also getting close to locking in a right translated nature to the current daily cycle.

A right translated daily cycle would signal a new intermediate cycle.

Looking at the weekly cycle the Miners appeared to have printed an intermediate cycle low the first week of March.
A swing low has formed and this week is providing some follow through.
The Miners still have a long way to travel to break the declining cycle trend line to confirm a new intermediate cycle.
However, the weekly RSI has crossed above the 30 line and there is a bullish crossover on the weekly TSI.

It is particularly encouraging to see both gold and the Miners rally in the face of the equity sell off.
Such bullish divergences have in the past signaled trend changes.

More and more pieces are starting to fit together …