Cycle Trading

Friday was day 5 for the dollar’s daily cycle

The dollar has exploded out of the low set on 2/01 forming a swing low and trend line beak on day 1.
This follows a failed daily cycle. Failed daily cycles normally signal an intermediate cycle decline.
This looks like day 5 of a new daily and new intermediate cycle.

Stocks

Friday was day 27 for the daily equity cycle.

With the dollar rallying out of what appears to be an intermediate cycle low, stocks had plenty of reasons to sell off. Instead they consolidated sideways.

Perhaps one reason is while the dollar was rallying, bonds continued to sell off.

Stocks will enter the timing band for a daily cycle low next week. That timing band extends out to day 45.
So while it appears that stocks may be ready to break out of consolidation, a swing high going forward does have the potential to signal a daily cycle decline.

The CCI

I will not be convinced that a yearly low has formed until we see a break of the multi-year declining trend line.

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