Cycle Trading

The current daily cycle peaked on day 4 and Friday was day 14.
The possibility does exist that the dollar bounces here into a new daily cycle.

Should that happen, the dollar would need to break above the declining (red) daily cycle trend line to confirm a new daily cycle.
The dollar should be turned back by the declining intermediate cycle trend line and then, I suspect, break below the 79 level.

Part of my rationale that the dollar will be contained by the declining intermediate cycle trend line is based on its intermediate cycle.

I detail the weekly and yearly cycles in the Weekend Report.

Stocks

Friday saw stocks once again break out to new highs.

But if the dollar does bounce off the 79 level into a new daily cycle, we could see a mid-cycle pullback here.
A half-cycle low would relieve some of the bullish sentiment that has been building and also set a daily cycle trend line.

I have to say that what we are seeing unfold reminds me for what unfolded last year.

After the first pull back equities marched relentlessly higher
The dollar seeking out its yearly cycle low combined with QE to infinity should provide a nice tail wind for equities for a final surge into a four year equity cycle peak.

The CCI

The CCI printed a daily cycle low on Monday and formed a swing low on Tuesday reversing a patterned on lower lows.

Wednesday was a breakout day where the CCI broke above the declining cycle trend line confirming a new daily cycle.
Friday was day 4 for the new daily cycle.

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