Dollar Direction …

January 24, 2013

The dollar still has not revealed its hand regarding it cycle status.

The dollar is either on day 24 or day 8.

A break below the rising (black) trend line would signal a final plunge into a daily cycle low for the dollar.
The dollar would be required to break below the day 16 low of 79.34 to print a daily cycle low.

A break above the declining (red) trend line would signal that Thursday is day 8 of a new daily cycle.
That would mean day 16 marked the daily cycle low for a right translated cycle.
The expectation would be for this new cycle to break above the previous daily cycle high of 80.54.

Each passing day shifts the odds of this being a new daily cycle with the expectation of an upside breakout.
Given the run in equities a little cooling off period may be in order.

Wednesday was day 15 for the equity daily cycle
Stocks are getting a bit stretched above the 10 day MA.
Also a brief pull back into a half cycle low usually occurs around this timeframe.

My proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator gave a sell signal after Tuesday’s close.

This was posted on the Likesmoney Weekend Report site on Wednesday morning.

http://likesmoneysubscriptionservices.wordpress.com/

The indicator signals a tightening of stops in the event of a correction.

Now we wait on the dollar …

4 responses to “Dollar Direction …”

IheartMrs.Seaver

January 24, 2013

Likes,
Did you mean a high of 80.84 not 80.54 on the dollar. Actually, on TOS I get an intraday high of 80.868.

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  January 24, 2013
  
  IheartMrs.Seaver,
  
  I wrongly listedmthe opening price of 80.549 as the intra-day high for 1/4/13.
  
  You are correct, the intra-day high was 80.868.
  
  Good Catch, thanks.
  
  Reply
trondtveten

January 24, 2013

$ have just broken out massively against Canadian dollar (presently at 10:30 am – already well above 1:1, but this started already early yesterday) – and vs the Australian too. This dollar breakout vs the commodity-currencies has been masked by the Jpy and Euro strength, so the DX is is maybe lagging due to this. $ strength vs Cad is sometimes an early warning for gold.

Poly managed to buy PM’s at the exact local top 🙂 Shows the risk of buying as late as weekly swings, daily swings and DC down-trendline breaks seems to be generally better as they come earlier, thus better risk-reward in relation to stop losses etc.

Reply
IheartMrs.Seaver

January 24, 2013

Trond,
I believe that gold did just see its half-cycle low this morning @ 1664.20 and we are now starting the 2nd half of the cycle.
It just so happened that the weekly swing coincided with the the ‘daily half-cycle low top. I think such a move reduced risk, confirming that an intermediate cycle low had taken place on January 4th. There have been a few DCL fakes over the past few months that waiting for a weekly swing was the right/conservative trade to make when dealing with subscribers. Just my 2 cents. 🙂

Trond, I have followed your comments in other places for many, many months – I value your thoughts. Where do you thing the current intermediate cycle in gold takes us?

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