Cycle Trading

Monday was day 16 for the dollar’s daily cycle.
A swing low formed the next day.
The question is did Monday host a daily cycle low?

I said that a break above the 80 level does increase the odds of Monday being a daily cycle low and Friday did see the dollar close above the 80 level.
The dollar is has now rallied for 4 days since the day 16 low.
Over the past 3 years, after a daily cycle has peaked no counter trend rally lasted longer than 4 days without initiating a new daily cycle.

Still, we would need to see a break of the declining (red) cycle trend line to confirm a new daily cycle.

A break of the secondary (black) trend line would signal a final drop into a daily cycle low.
Now if Monday did mark a 16 day, daily cycle low, that would lock in a right translated nature to the first daily cycle.

Stocks

Friday was day 13 for the daily equity cycle.

At this point, stocks could seek out a half cycle low.
Should the dollar break above the declining cycle trend line, that would likely send stocks into a half cycle low.

It is interesting to note the large Buying on Weakness print by APPL.

With APPL still a dominant market player, a contra trend trend rally will surely add a tail wind to stocks postponing a drop into a half cycle low.

The CCI

The intermediate cycle has formed a weekly swing low and is on the verge of breaking through the declining cycle trend line to confirm a new weekly cycle.

I think that the CCI is in the process in forming an early yearly cycle low. The confirmation of a new intermediate cycle will likely signal a new yearly cycle.

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