Possible Miner Reversal …

December 20, 2012

The Miners printed a bullish reversal today.

Last night we discussed 12/5 as a daily cycle low which would make today day 11.
Should the Miners break above 428.19 they would form a swing low.
I have seen 12 day daily cycles but not an eleven day daily cycle.

This raises the possibility of a second scenario to consider for the Miners.
That 11/16 actually marked the daily cycle low making today day 23.

The trend line breaks are “cleaner” under the 11 day scenario.
Obviously the timing is better under a 23 day scenario.

A break above the declining red trend line would confirm a new daily cycle under the 23 day scenario.

Having gold and equities rallying would certainly help the Miners

Gold is very deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low.

Thursday was day 33 for the daily gold cycle.
Gold did have a panic drop and then recovered off the lows.
A break above 1649 would form a swing low and quite possibly a daily cycle low

Stocks are on day 23 for the daily equity cycle.
Stocks have been up 16 out of the past 23 days.
There was a large 273 million Selling on Strength today so equities could give some back.
However, the trend is up unless the daily cycle trend line is breached.
With the dollar cycle needing another 7 to 15 days to print a low,
that should give stocks more room to run.

5 responses to “Possible Miner Reversal …”

cycletrader

December 20, 2012

Why not a short dollar cycle given the previous dollar cycle was extended?

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1. likesmoneystudies
  
  December 20, 2012
  
  It is possible.
  And let’s face it, the dollar has been throwing plenty of curveballs.
  I would have to consider it if the dollar broke above the red declining cycle trend line in the above chart.
  (I had drawn this chart up earlier but was going to pass on posting it tonight)
  
  Reply
jamesmarkii

December 20, 2012

Flash Crash Futures
Spx -36

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Trond

December 21, 2012

James, tnx for the link to the 1 year ago comparison. Here a zooming in, with 4 hour candles. Remark that a slightly lower bottom came 1 day after the plunge-bottom. Then the following multi-day ‘Christmas’ 🙂 rally failed before the true low was set..

I don’t quite agree with prolonging the cycle into 33 days. DOC did the same in July 2011 in order to maintain a wishful idea-thinking he currently had. The result was missing a 400$ gold rally.. (At first he nailed the DC and IC correctly, but then later on he changed his mind, and started to stretch BOTH the current DC and IC. With hindsight, had to revise back to the previous normal cycle count, too late). One of the purposes of the cycles is be an objective safeguard against subjectivity and any wishful thinking.
At least not both the DC and IC longer than 30-31 candles. One of them, the current IC, yes, maybe, but to stretch both of them..

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