Possible Dollar Bounce …

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The dollar broke below the previous daily cycle low on day 7 making this a failed daily cycle. The dollar should be trending lower for the next 8 to 15 days.

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Wednesday was day 10 for the daily dollar cycle and the dollar appears to have found some support at the 79 level. We are likely to see an oversold bounce that will set the declining cycle trend line which will set the dollar up for the final plunge into its cycle low.

If the dollar does give a short term bounce, that will likely not be good news for the Miners

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The Miners have been caught in the grips of an intermediate cycle decline since late September.

I would say that the Miners printed a daily cycle low on Wednesday, 12/05.
Now today, on day 10, we see the Miners testing the daily cycle low. If the dollar does bounce we will likely see a break below the 12/05 low of 427.46 producing one more failed daily cycle.

Gold may still be looking to print a daily cycle low for its failed daily cycle.
Tuesday was day 31 for gold’s daily cycle. While gold closed slightly lower on Wednesday, it did not print a lower low. I still think that we will see gold make one more push lower, enough to marginally break below Tuesday’s low which should ease the parameters for forming a daily swing low, which should be the daily cycle low.

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In the above chart I wanted you to see that in previous times when RSI was this oversold on RSI, Gold rallied. Coupled that with the fact that gold is in the timing band for both a daily and intermediate cycle low suggests that a change in trend is imminent.

Should gold not go lower, then a break above 1703.10 would form a swing low off of Tuesday’s low.

Either way, this ride is long from being over …

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9 responses to “Possible Dollar Bounce …”

  1. likesbullmarkets Avatar
    likesbullmarkets

    gary is pointing out a tripple bottom in GDX. they usually fail, any thoughts?

    1. likesmoneystudies Avatar
      likesmoneystudies

      The he and I are in agreement.
      As I explained tonight, it looks like the Miners are on the verge of another failed daily cycle. And a dollar bounce will likely send the miners lower.

  2. jamesmarkii Avatar

    SHould fail as often as a triple top.

  3. vorfahrt Avatar
    vorfahrt

    Also, would we not expect another lower low in gold after the daily cycle low as it was a left-translated cycle? – Thanks.

  4. Trond Avatar

    The bullion banks will continue to shake the market until all their shorts have been bought back at far lower prices than they were sold. With unlimited paper firepower, + being custodians of the Comex and LME, with advanced computers and hft, completely cornering the market. May drive the prices as low as they want. The current large long positions of the hedgies and small specs are ‘fat prey’.
    This IC will probably bottom when the COT structure is at the same low open interest level as last summer. (Might require another 2 weeks, so maybe we’re then in a 8 day new failed DC and not the end of a 30+ days one?)

    Good for everybody that purchases physical metal. Bad for the profit level of miners. Might explain their continuous underperforming. – Until they’ll had enough and forms some kind of OPEC alliance..

    1. vorfahrt Avatar
      vorfahrt

      I agree about the COT – not looking too good for abottom with commercials so short and everybody else long.

  5. jamesmarkii Avatar

    Gold $1600-1620. That should about do it.
    Lower BB (100 period) daily or the bottom 20 bb on the weekly.

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