Cycle Trading

Now it seems it is the dollar’s turn …

The dollar formed a swing low and had an impressive day up.

It seems that I was just saying …
“If 11/27 hosted a 29 day daily cycle low, that would make Wednesday day 6 of a failed daily cycle. Because this is a failed daily cycle, the dollar should continue lower and be contained by the declining cycle trend line.”

What does that do for our dollar cycle.

Thursday there clearly was a break of the trend line drawn off the day 1 high.

Either

Day 29 hosted the daily cycle low and now the dollar is seeking to set the declining cycle trend line. In this scenario the dollar should not break above the day 1 high.

Or

The dollar experienced an extended 35 day daily cycle low.

Lets see what the weekly picture tells us.

The dollar’s weekly cycle peaked on week 8.
It broke through the accelerated weekly trend line on week 9.
But as you can see, it stopped short of breaching the weekly cycle trend line.

So even if a new daily cycle began on Thursday, the weekly cycle is still in decline.
The expectation would be for a brief rally peaking by day 8.

There is still room for the dollar to rally a bit further before running into the declining weekly cycle trend line.

Gold still managed a positive day inspite of the big dollar day.

The low if the current daily cycle printed on Wednesday at day 22.

Now if gold breaks above 1707 it will form a swing low in the timing band for a dcl and have a trend line break in hand.

Gold forming a daily cycle low is not congruent with the dollar rallying out of a daily cycle low.

While the dollar has been using every trick in the book, gold’s cycle count is more straight forward.

I have to say that gold’s daily cycle does look clearer to read than the dollar’s.