The 12/04 Morning Update

December 4, 2012

This looks more and more like the dollar’s daily cycle topped on day 1.
It broke the accelerated trend line to confirm a new daily cycle.

Day two formed a swing high.

The dollar sliced through the 80 level on Monday.
And we are seeing more follow through to the downside this morning.

You would think that we would see gold respond to this move …

Gold made a new lower low this morning.

Today is day 21 in gold’s daily cycle.
Gold appears to be leaving that low behind in response to the dollar tanking.

Should gold break higher tomorrow, it will form a daily swing low that is right in the timing band for a low and the odds are pretty good that gold printed a daily cycle low.

Gold in the timing band for a daily cycle low is congruent with the dollar’s daily cycle breaking lower.

The dollar being at day 5 could see another up to 15 – 20 days before printing its next daily cycle low.

That should should provide the fuel to rocket gold higher ….

5 responses to “The 12/04 Morning Update”

trondtveten

December 4, 2012

The problem is that the $ is so oversold now that one risks a little bounce starting any time soon. (Down 11 of the last 12 days) Could drive gold into its final DCL one or 2 days from now?

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likesbullmarkets

December 4, 2012

seems the train came back to the station
I just hope I am in it when the rocket blast off
Stops are in at 1670 and toes are crossed

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trondtveten

December 4, 2012

The target of the hs formation I thought might be ‘painted’, (but which wasn’t) after this neckline breach is 1770-75 for gold and ~32.10 for silver. Will very likely be hit. And a temporary dollar weakness could be the trigger. Hopefully above 1772.. (If not, may it be an extended IC?).

This resembles the January 2011 dip. Then gold dropped together with the dollar after the $-bear rally following the QE announcement late autumn of 2010 peaked around 10th of January. Deja-vu…

Reply
trondtveten

December 4, 2012

Correction; a temporary dollar strength, the trigger.

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