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Cycle Trading

Every Trick in the Book …

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Oh those tricky Miners …

The Miners will use every trick in the book to through off traders

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Back in July the Miners formed a very complicated bottom after rallying out of their three year low …

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… in order to have trading chasing to leave leave traders chasing.

So, on a day when all other asset classes were selling off along with the dollar,
the Miners rallied.

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We discussed in the Weekend Report how the Miners needed to break above the declining trend line to confirm a new daily cycle.

As we can see the Miners retreated from the declining trend line.
That makes today day 26 for the Miners daily cycle.
At this point I expect the Miners to break below the day 15 intra-day low of 430.68
That would establish a lower low extending the Miner’s daily cycle.

This looks like another complicated bottom setting up the Miners to bottom in tandem with gold.

That would be a winning combination …

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22 responses to “Every Trick in the Book …”

  1. HelpPayYourBills Avatar
    HelpPayYourBills

    Great post. Thank you for your thoughts. Is a lower low absolutely necessary in miners? I believe that we put in the bottom today. Is that remotely possible? Not sure how this fits in the cycle theory. If miners make a lower low, will gold hold $1672?

    Reply
    1. likesmoneystudies Avatar
      likesmoneystudies

      That’s a great question.
      A lower low does tidy things up from a cycle perspective.
      Let’s say that the Miners did print their dcl today.
      That would mean that the Miners left behind an 11 day daily cycle.

      An 11 day daily cycle would certainly be on the short side.
      Of the 42 daily cycles between 10/24/08 & 05/15/12 I saw none with a duration of less than 12 days. And only three daily cycles had a duration of 12 days.

      Reply
      1. HelpPayYourBills Avatar
        HelpPayYourBills

        Great. Thank you so much. I see that by cycle analysis and historical data it is almost impossible for miners to have put in a bottom today. Well, I added to my miners today. I move down my stop by a bit incase they decide to run the previous low by a few pennies.

      2. likesmoneystudies Avatar
        likesmoneystudies

        I would never say impossible. When ever we think MR Market would never do something, often times he does 🙂

  2. Jack Dog Avatar
    Jack Dog

    Likesmoney,
    This IC has had more twists and turns than a road rally, sure will be nice we get to the DRAG STRIP.
    Jack Dog
    P.S. At this point would like to at least see one CHERRY!

    Reply
  3. Blackwell Avatar
    Blackwell

    Likesmoney.. What is the typical length of the miner’s daily cycle? Much like gold’s at 20-28 days? Perhaps tomorrow’s action in miner’s will be good for a quick spike lower and then a kind of “inside” day. That would make it easier to create a swing low on Thursday. Also, notice the last “bottom” how we had the Bollinger Band crash, and then had that inside day immediately after. We could be getting the same setup again. Either way, I think a bottom is very near. I also added to my miners positions today to DCA. Thanks for the report.. I always look forward to them! http://img826.imageshack.us/img826/9931/54914016.png

    Reply
    1. likesmoneystudies Avatar
      likesmoneystudies

      About 69% of right translated daily cycles bottom between 16 -28 days
      About 68% of left translated daily cycles bottom between 16 – 24 days

      Reply
  4. Trond Avatar
    Trond

    In addition to the things LM mentioned above, bullish falling wedge patterns have formed both in silver and gold. (Which at this moment both are in motion to break out from). Probably/maybe outweighs the simultaneous bearish hs. In case its target was only halway met.

    Reply
  5. Trond Avatar
    Trond

    This year’s QE announcement date of 13. September occurred 2 month minus 1 week before the 2010 Nov 5th announcement (on the calendar). After that news was sold, gold then bottomed on 27 January 2011
    And today is 2 months minus 1 week before 27 Jan.. Hence if today was the bottom, it has happened at the identical length of time after the initial QE ephoria day.

    Reply
    1. Trond Avatar
      Trond

      Of course today was not an IC low as the one in 2011, however not far from.
      This coincidence is probably due to the same time is required now as then before the liquidity starts to flow.
      And the QE1 announcement euphoria day in mid-March 2009 was also sold, then the IC bottom occurred earlier, about one month later.

      Reply
    2. likesmoneystudies Avatar
      likesmoneystudies

      Great observation

      Reply
  6. Tuesday, December 4 2012: The 336th Anniversary of the Battle of Lund – Page 6

    […] Every Trick in the Book … | Cycle Trading […]

    Reply
  7. Wednesday, December 5 2012: It’s a bull market after all…

    […] LM showed last night that cycle history shows that 0% chance that miners bottomed yesterday – check out the comments section – Every Trick in the Book … | Cycle Trading […]

    Reply
  8. Trond Avatar
    Trond

    The dollar going up to retest the 80 pivot. That’s absolute poison for the PM’s..

    Reply
    1. likesbullmarkets Avatar
      likesbullmarkets

      Gold has every potential to just sit here and wait it out . It’s very far from a absolute

      Reply
  9. HelpPayYourBills Avatar
    HelpPayYourBills

    Great call LM. Thank you. HUI just made a lower low. Does this reset the IC count?

    Reply
  10. alex Avatar
    alex

    Likesmoney

    Quick question-

    If $HUI and $XAU did just break to new lows, even lower than NOV 16 , THAT becomes the ICL?

    And what if GDX didnt (yet)…Wouldnt there be 2 different counts and why do you use $ HUI vs GDX? Is it because the $HUI was around in 2001 and GDX is relatively newer??

    Thanks
    ALEX

    Reply
    1. HelpPayYourBills Avatar
      HelpPayYourBills

      Great question. I second it!

      Reply
      1. HelpPayYourBills Avatar
        HelpPayYourBills

        New low in GDX as well…

    2. likesmoneystudies Avatar
      likesmoneystudies

      I use the $HUI simply because is has been around longer.

      I do not think that 11/16 was a dcl (although it looked like one in real time).

      Even if it was a dcl, I view that the Miner’s are still caught in the grip of the intermediate cycle decline that began in October.

      Reply
  11. alex Avatar
    alex

    I just reviewed L.M.’s cycle count in Miners…With the count that L.M. has…today would actually late in the cycle (And I believe I mistakenly asked my question thinking that the ICL was NOV 16. L.M. doesnt have the count showing Nov 16th as a DCL.

    Reply
  12. vorfahrt Avatar
    vorfahrt

    In any case the DC is getting long in the tooth and should bottom any day now.

    Reply

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