Cycle Trading

The dollar has broke below the 80 level this morning.

On November 27 th the dollar printed its daily cycle low at 29 days.

That is deep in the timing band for the dollar.
The dollar then popped for 1 day and reversed.
We were faced with the prospect that the dollar is either extending its daily cycle
OR
The dollar’s new daily cycle peaked in one day.

A marginal new low with in a day or two of 11/27 would be acceptable for an extended daily cycle.

With today’s action the dollar would be on day 33.

I cannot recall a dollar cycle stretching this far.
And to give credit to a respected trader, TJ Rand, he posted on another forum that his records do not show a dollar cycle stretching this long.
(I haven’t the time to research it myself this morning, but I believe him.)

At day 4, the dollar should have another 3 – 4 weeks before finding its daily cycle low. And already the dollar broke below the previous daily cycle low set on 11/27 making this a failed daily cycle.

The dollar is in the process of losing the 80 pivot. This is an historically important pivot

Now I want to show you this pivot with the back drop of the dollar’s three year cycles

As you can clearly see, the dollar rallied 10 points above the 80 level during the last three year cycle and formed a double top at 8 points above the 80 level.

The current three year cycle has been pathetic.
Barely 4 points above the 80 level and now is in the process of losing the 80 handle.
As detailed in the Weekend Report, the dollar is also in the process off seeking its yearly cycle low.

Things do not look so hot for the buck …