Dollar Curve Ball …

November 29, 2012

The dollar continued to through curve balls today by backtesting testing the 80 level.

Thursday was day 3 for the new daily dollar cycle.
I still expect to see the dollar marginally break the declining cycle trend line to confirm a new daily cycle
Then roll over quickly into its primary daily cycle decline.

Gold printed a small gain on Thursday

Nothing much has changed with gold but I wanted to post the chart for a comparison to silver’s chart.

If gold breaks above 1743.10, it will form a swing low.

Since gold had a daily trend line break,
if gold breaks above 1755 it prints a higher high and confirms a new daily cycle.

Now lets look at silver

Silver gained 10% during the last daily cycle compared to gold’s 6.33%
Silver had a trend line break and now has printed a higher high.
It looks as though that silver is leading gold out of a daily cycle low.

Silver is demonstrating excellent relative strength to gold.

Once the dollar finally enters its primary daily cycle decline, silver should soar …

3 responses to “Dollar Curve Ball …”

Blackwell

November 29, 2012

Thanks for the update. I was looking forward to hearing your take on today’s action in the dollar. I saw the $USD print a lower low today. On 11/26 the dollar printed $80.07. Today it printed $80.03 (according to Forexpros). Now, I know that we got a swing low yesterday which would normally help confirm the new daily cycle, but couldn’t that have just been a fakeout.. before putting in the “actual” DCL today? Then again, perhaps my entire analysis is wrong.. because my stockcharts subscription shows entirely different lows over the last 3 days in comparison to other services such as Forexpros. Netdania also shows a lower low today, although only marginally so at $80.021 vs $80.022 on the 26th. Thoughts?

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  November 30, 2012
  
  Blackwell,
  
  Stockcharts and Barcharts have both Tuesday’s and Thursday’s intra-day low for the dollar at 80.02.
  
  FXStreet does have the dollar at 80.01 on Thursday.
  
  If the dollar breaks down from here and heads lower, then we will need to consider that the dollar printed 1 one day peak.
  
  More than likely, the dollar will rally for 4 – 6 days.
  
  Regarding the discrepancy in quotes, that is frustrating and adds a bit of uncertainty.
  
  It would be prudent going forward to keep in mind both Tuesday and Thursday as setting the daily cycle low.
  
  Reply
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