Stumbled out of the Gates …

November 28, 2012

Although the dollar closed lower on Wednesday, it did manage to form a swing low.

The odds favor today being day 1 of a new daily cycle instead of day 30 of an extended daily cycle.

The dollar sure stumbled out of the gates.
If today is truly day one of a new daily cycle perhaps the weakness seen could be signaling that this new daily cycle will not have the energy to print a higher daily cycle high.

Stocks managed to take advantage of a dollar closing lower by rallying into the end of the day and posting a 0.79% gain.

We may have witnessed stocks setting the daily cycle trend line today.

Gold printed a reversal today.

Wednesday was day 17 for gold’s daily cycle,
which is one day shy of the normal timing band for gold to print a daily cycle low.
Gold should find its daily cycle low over then next 8 days.

However, if gold breaks above 1743 it will form a swing low.
If gold breaks above Friday’s high of 1754.10 then we would have a new daily cycle in play for gold.

That is something we will need to keep in mind because in a bull market, surprises will come to the upside.

8 responses to “Stumbled out of the Gates …”

Aaron

November 28, 2012

I think you mean 1742 perhaps? for a swing low.

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  November 28, 2012
  
  Aaron,
  
  Thanks for catching that, I meant 1743. Fixed now.
  
  Reply
Joe

November 28, 2012

Nice picture for the US$… could be me in the morning before 10:00 a.m. …

Reply
trondtveten

November 29, 2012

UUP bottomed on the 23rd of November. Even in DX did make a slight lower low 2 days later, it was in light trading during US/Europe nighttime. And even then the rsi on the 4 hour made a positive divergence. So the 23rd, a panic down-day, was the ‘spiritual low’ and Wednesday was the 3rd day since the UUP bottomed. Might be part of the explanation if the DX now should top on the formal day 1.

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  November 29, 2012
  
  trondtveten,
  
  Good observation.
  The DXY is showing a swing high this morning.
  
  If it breaks below Tuesday’s low that could indicate a daily cycle top in the DXY.
  
  Reply
HelpPayYourBills

November 29, 2012

HI LikesMoney,

Nice update. Thank you.
Just one observation: The gold chart you have up here looks quiet different from the gold chart on stockcharts. The one on stockcharts shows a clean trendline break.

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  November 29, 2012
  
  HelpPayYourBills,
  
  I noticed that as well.
  
  I may need to switch stocks if their data feed is more reliable…
  
  Reply
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