Cycle Trading

The dollar rallied again on day 22 of the dollar’s daily cycle.

The dollar was rejected by the 81.50 level today, leaving behind a long upper wick.
A break below 80.99 forms a swing high and quite likely the daily cycle peak.

With the dollar setting a higher high on day 22 all but confirms that this current daily cycle will form as right translated.
That sets the expectation for the next daily cycle to print a higher high.

Week 9 saw the dollar run into a pretty significant pivot level.
If the dollar forms a daily swing high next week, then that keeps alive the possibility that this current intermediate cycle can form as left translated.

Should the dollar break above the 81.50 level next week, that would keep alive the possibility that September hosted a yearly cycle low.

November is month 8 for the yearly cycle.
Despite the dollar rally this week, the yearly cycle is still in decline.
As long as the dollar stays below the declining monthly trend line, then the yearly decline remains in play.

Please keep in mind that the dollar has been printing lower monthly highs for the last 2 three year cycles

Stocks

The intermediate cycle low just may be in.

There was green across all asset classes by the end of the day.
The intermediate cycle low just may be in.

Stocks printed a reversal today.

Friday was day 50 for the daily equity cycle.
Since this was an outside day, the earliest that stocks can form a swing low is on Monday by breaking above 1362.03.

If Monday is day 1 of a new intermediate cycle, we will likely see a 90% up volume day.

This was week 22 of the current intermediate cycle. Since stocks are in the timing band for printing a weekly cycle low, a new daily cycle stands pretty good odds of also forming a new intermediate cycle low.

A break above 1389 will form a weekly swing low.

The yearly cycle already has formed a swing high.
If, in fact, a new daily and intermediate cycle begins next week, then equities will need to break out to new highs to negate the monthly swing high.

Gold

Monday was day 8 for gold’s daily cycle.

Buyers have been stepping in at the 1705 level.
Once gold forms a swing low, that will set the daily cycle trend line.

While it appears that gold is in a new intermediate cycle, I want to remind you that gold has yet to form a weekly swing low.

A break above 1739 forms a weekly swing low, confirming that gold is in a new intermediate cycle.

Gold has formed a monthly swing high this month, which is month 6 of the yearly cycle.
Gold tagged the yearly cycle trend line and has reversed higher.

Miners

I received some comments regarding the Miners.
One specifically from sdfsdf which is always good advice
“Miners are doing something that they shouldn’t be doing. Anytime something does something you’re not expecting, please beware. It means you completely missed something. Caution warranted.”

Let’s take a look at what they were doing.

The Miners were seeking out their intermediate cycle low.
The Miners printed a daily cycle low on 10/24.
Then next rallied to a peak on 10/31 and broke through the declining cycle trend line. That confirmed a new daily cycle.

However, the Miners were still caught in the grips of an intermediate cycle decline, along with the stock market in general.

The Miners cannot resist the selling pressure of an equity intermediate cycle sell off and so continued into another failed daily cycle.

It looks like Friday the Miners may have printed a bottom.
A break above 444 forms a daily swing low.

As we have been chronicling, we are still waiting on a weekly swing low and trend line break to confirm a new intermediate cycle.

This week was week 26 for the intermediate cycle.
The Miners are overdue for a weekly cycle low.
A break above 484 forms a weekly swing low and since we are so deep into the weekly cycle count it has very good odds of being the intermediate cycle low.

Should we confirm a new intermediate cycle next week, then this cycle is a right translated intermediate cycle.

The Miners are in the process of printing an ugly swing high on the monthly chart.
However, the Miners have managed to reverse off the yearly cycle trend line.
A break of that trend line would have indicated a yearly cycle decline.
The expectation considering we have a reversal off the yearly cycle trend line along with the fact that the Miners just printed a right translated intermediate cycle is for the Miners to print a new higher yearly high.

The CCI

The CCI has resisted the selling pressure despite equities plunging into an intermediate cycle low.

Friday was day 9 for the CCI daily cycle.
The CCI broke above the (red) accelerated trend line providing a first level on confirmation of a new daily cycle.
A break above the (black) declining trend line will provide final confirmation of a new daily cycle.

This week the CCI printed a higher low, but not a higher high.
So we are still waiting on a swing low to form as a first level of confirmation that an intermediate cycle low has printed.
A break above 563 forms a weekly swing low.
Then a break of the declining trend line will provide final confirmation of a new intermediate cycle.

November is month 5 for the yearly cycle.
A monthly swing high has formed.
But the CCI has managing to hold above the 560 support level.
A reversal higher could set the yearly cycle trend line.

Bonds

Friday was day 19 for the daily bonds cycle.

Bonds printed a reversal candle on Friday.
A break below 126.28 forms a daily swing high.
With bonds being in the timing band for a daily cycle low, a swing high will likely initiate the daily cycle decline.

Week 9 was a rather narrow range week for bonds.
This eases the parameters to form a weekly swing high.
A break below 125 forms a weekly swing high and quite likely will mark the intermediate cycle decline.

A break below the weekly trend line confirms an intermediate cycle decline.

The yearly cycle peaked on month 4 and so far the low printed in month 6. November is month 8 for the yearly cycle.

TLT has breached the declining yearly cycle trend line.
Since September was month 6, it is too early for that to have been a yearly cycle low.
I am inclined to view November is setting the yearly declining trend line.
We would need to see TLT break below the rising (red) yearly trend line to confirm this view and for bonds to continue a yearly cycle decline.