Upon Closer Inspection …

November 5, 2012

The 150 day moving average has pretty much defined dollar rallies from dollar corrections.

It is not uncommon for the dollar to back test the 150 upon losing it or regaining it.

The dollar lost the 150 day MA on September 7 th,
Will the dollar be rejected by it now?

The dollar being rejected the by the 150 MA dovetails into the yearly outlook.

Should the dollar be rejected by the 150 day MA then it will continue moving into a yearly cycle low.

The dollar closing above the 150 day MA sets up the possibility that an early yearly low was printed in September.

A quick look at gold’s daily chart shows that gold printed a lower low on Monday

Gold is very deep into its daily cycle.
The lower low set on Monday eases the parameters to form a swing low on Tuesday.

A break above 1687 will form a daily swing low and quite possibility the daily cycle low.
A move above the declining trend line would confirm a new daily cycle.

And we will have to see if Tuesday’s election changes the game …

4 responses to “Upon Closer Inspection …”

Joe

November 5, 2012

LM: Thanks for your update. Is there any meaning if the new 15 year US$ supercycle starts with a bearish 3 year cycle? Does that mean the whole rest of the supercycle will be bearish? Or would we have to add another 3 year cycle to the last supercycle? – Thanks, Joe

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1. likesmoneystudies
  
  November 5, 2012
  
  Joe,
  
  I have been meaning to do an update on the 15 year super cycle.
  In a nutshell, there are five 3-year cycles embedded in the 15 year super cycle.
  
  We are currently in the second 3-year cycle of the current 15 year super cycle.
  
  A failed 3-year cycle at this point would mean that the dollar is toast.
  
  Reply
  1. Joe
    
    November 5, 2012
    
    Thanks, LM. i was afraid so. Let’s see how it plays out.
Joe

November 6, 2012

OK, we definitively got the swing low in gold, but the US$ move was minuscule, so I call a draw for today.

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