The 11/2 Morning Update

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The current daily dollar cycle features a peak on day 8.

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A swing high formed and on day 10 printed a dragonfly doji.
That appeared to set the daily cycle trend line.
Now we see on Friday morning the dollar testing the cycle peak.
That gives the dollar two lines in the sand.
Should the dollar break above the day 8 intra-day high that swings the odds of this daily cycle forming as right translated.

If the day 8 peak holds and the dollar breaks below the daily cycle trend line then our original framework remains in play.

Stocks seem to shrug off the strong dollar on Thursday by printing a 1.09% gain.

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The explosive move up is characteristic of stocks moving out of an intermediate cycle low.

Something else to look for is a follow through day adding another 1.5%.

What was missing was a 90% up-volume.
Since the previous daily cycle did not break below the previous daily cycle low of 1396.56 there remains the possibility that this is not a new intermediate cycle but a new daily cycle.

While stocks shrugged off the strong dollar, gold faltered.

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Gold did print a higher high on Thursday but reversed into the close.
Now Friday shows a swing high has formed.
Gold could be back-testing the daily cycle low.
A break below the previous low of 1698.80 would signal that this is not a new intermediate cycle but the concluding daily cycle to the previous intermediate cycle.

It all goes back to the dollar.
We will need to see which way the dollar breaks.

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6 responses to “The 11/2 Morning Update”

  1. likesbullmarkets Avatar
    likesbullmarkets

    at 5:05 dec futures broke 5.5 cents higher on the dollar, but thats the futures and not spot. hmmm

  2. vorfahrt Avatar
    vorfahrt

    I guess it’s clear by now that he US$ broke upwards.

  3. ALEX Avatar
    ALEX

    Looking forward to your weekend report L.M.

    The low last Wednesday on Miners was taken out today…I am wondering…how do you adjust your counts with the 2 missing days (Mon & Tuesday) ?? They do not exist , like a holiday? Metals & the dollar were open on those days..so they must be counted that way .

    Thanks.

    1. likesmoneystudies Avatar
      likesmoneystudies

      The quick answer is the dollar & gold cycle counts did not miss on Mon & Tuesday.
      The SPX in general and the Miners specifically were not in session, therefore no count registered.
      I am just beginning to look at charts for the weekend report so I am not going to comment now on last Wednesday’s low being taken out.
      But I am going to look at was last Wednesday the daily cycle low or are the Miners in the process now of printing the dcl.

      1. ALEX Avatar
        ALEX

        Thanks…and that last paragraph is exactly where my head is at. I took note of your D.C. counts in the past for Miners ..we are either DEEP into it, or….? I will let you explain in your weekend report and thanks!

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