Morning Update

October 31, 2012

The dollar showed some follow through in the overnight.

A swing high was printed on Tuesday and with the downside follow through the dollar appears to have begun its primary decline into a daily cycle low.

The dollar’s timing band for a low is 18 – 25 days suggesting that the dollar can decline for the next 8 to 15 sessions .

The Futures are green.

The Russell is on the verge of printing a swing low at this hour while there are swing lows on the NAS, DJIA & S&P.

And look at gold.

Gold printed its daily cycle low last Wednesday.
Gold formed a swing low the next day.

The break of the declining trend line confirms a new daily cycle and very likely a new intermediate cycle.

Which means …

Office Memo:

Due to an anticipated battle with ghosts and goblins I will likely not be posting a report tonight 🙂

10 responses to “Morning Update”

IheartMrs.Seaver

October 31, 2012

Good luck with your adventures this evening. I hope to see you on the other side. And thanks for the morning post. Important turning point in front of us.

Reply
likesbullmarkets

October 31, 2012

Much Gary stroking going on right now.
I think LM was more on top of things this time around.
Can’t thank you enough you masked super hero

Reply
vorfahrt

October 31, 2012

Thanks LM. It really seems to unfold here as you stated yesterday already: Dollar down and the miners are in fire. Thanks!

Reply
Chris

October 31, 2012

Man, you just don’t stop. I’ve got two paid subs and you put out more info than they do for nothing.

Thx,
Chris

Reply
1. IheartMrs.Seaver
  
  November 1, 2012
  
  Chris, Don’t give our leader any ideas. It’s a tough economy out there. 🙂
  
  Reply
Steve

October 31, 2012

LM
Thanks for your sharing your cycle updates and, more importantly, the opportunity for one to learn from your knowledge.

Another aspect of the markets that I find intriguing, other than cycles, are analogous charts that follow similar structures and imply a general roadmap to come.

But as is said, analogies work until they don’t.

I thought I would share an analogy of the 2011 dollar index low from a blogger I follow who is adept at spotting chart pattern correlations. His recent USD analog looks to suggest a larger rise of the dollar in the months ahead. http://www.marketanthropology.com/2012/10/as-traders-continued-to-fight-outgoing.html

Does this match your longer term expectations of the dollar?

What in your cycle work would provide signals that such a move would or would not happen?

Thanks
Steve

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  November 1, 2012
  
  Steve,
  
  Thanks for the link.
  
  I do find this blogger’s analogy compelling.
  
  His analogy matches up where I have the dollar on a 15 year super cycle.
  
  The dollar goes about 15 years from trough to trough in a super cycle
  
  This super cycle is embedded with 3 year cycles.
  
  The analogy shows the dollar in 1995 at month 17 of the second 3 year cycle of a 15 year super cycle
  
  That is were we currently are, month 17 of the second 3 year cycle of the 15 year super cycle.
  
  As I discussed in my recent post https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2012/10/28/special-dollar-edition/
  
  The dollar is currently declining into a yearly cycle low with a break of the three year cycle trend line.
  
  That signals the 3 year cycle is in decline.
  
  Sure, we will get a rally out of the yearly cycle low. ButI do not believe that it will regain the three year trend line.
  
  I agree with you, analogies work until the don’t.
  
  Reply
mihir shah

November 1, 2012

great work !

Reply
vorfahrt

November 1, 2012

LM: If the 15-year US$ supercycle is in such an early stage and we are already so close to the lows of the past supercycle and probably declining into the next 3-year lows – does that mean the next cycle will decline for about 12 more years or we should hold the ~70 level as a retest and then rally for yers to come? – Ugh if we decline for 15 years… Thanks again for your awesome posts.

Reply
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