Cycle Trading

The Yearly dollar cycle peaked on month 5 and formed a swing high the following month.

The yearly cycle currently stands at month 8 and has been in decline since month 5.

With the yearly cycle in decline, the expectation is for the intermediate cycles to form as left translated cycles. Left translated weekly cycles peak 87% of the time by week 8 and then decline into the intermediate cycle low.

The weekly cycle is currently on week 7 and may have printed a cycle peak on Monday.

Since early September the dollar has struggled to stay above 80.

Over the past 35 sessions, the dollar only managed to close above 80 three times.

Monday the dollar closed above 80 and today saw a reversal.

Tuesday formed a swing high along with an apparent trend line break.

Some follow through to the downside will confirm the dollar cycle is in decline.

The 15 minute chart over the past week shows the dollar’s struggle to regain the 80 only to see it break down today and give it a kiss goodbye.

The only issue with this is that the dollar never formed a weekly swing low.

If you are wondering if this should be labeled week 26 I would offer you no.

The dollar has accomplished all other tasks necessary to confirm a new intermediate cycle sans the weekly swing low.

Also gold and precious metals all formed intermediate cycle lows normally associated with a dollar rallying out of an intermediate cycle low.

I believe that a new intermediate cycle formed 7 weeks ago. The absence of a weekly swing low speak more to the power of Ben’s printing press and to the weakness of the dollar…