Somebody Stop Me …

October 25, 2012

The Miners had an impressive day rallying for 3.20% and formed a swing low on Thursday.

The Miners are in the timing band for printing a daily cycle low and may have done so on Wednesday. Thursday is either day 21 or possibly day 1 of a new daily cycle.

A break of the declining trend line would confirm a new daily cycle.

Gold also formed a swing low today

Gold was not able to hang on to all of its gains but still managed to close up 0.46% .

And like the Miners, there was not declining trend line break confirming a new daily cycle.

It is worth noting that both the Miners & gold printed these gains on only the second time in 32 trading days the dollar managed to close above the 80 level.

While it is tempting to go shopping on these swing lows, the dollar daily cycle is still rallying.

Thursday saw the dollar form a swing high and then rally into the close.

It was only the second time in 32 days that the dollar managed to close above the 80 level.

The rally into the close suggests that this daily cycle rally is not over.

The dollar can still break above the 80.42 level forming a weekly swing low before the dollar finally rolls over.

And until the dollar does finally roll over, it may not be safe to go back into the waters…

9 responses to “Somebody Stop Me …”

bernard tan

October 26, 2012

again am still learning , when do u know this snp is just a correction , or a start of bear leg , bec if you believe it is a correction then u are assuming that the bull trend is resuming, or isnt the top in for now and a bear leg has just started ?

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  October 26, 2012
  
  The short answer is my cycle framework.
  
  Equities run in 4 year cycles from trough to trough.
  
  The current 4 year cycle stands at 43 months, therefore we are nearing the timing band to seek out a four year low.
  
  A failed yearly cycle leads to a 4 year cycle low.
  
  To get a failed yearly cycle, equities need to print a failed intermediate cycle.
  
  The intermediate cycle runs 18 – 25 weeks from trough to trough. The current intermediate cycle is on week 20 and is right in the timing band to print a low.
  
  So the current daily cycle is due to print a low any day now and I assume it will also mark the intermediate cycle low.
  
  The timing suggests that the next intermediate cycle could lead to stocks declining into a 4 year low.
  
  In order for that to happen, the weekly cycle should peak by week 12 and more than likely by week 8. Which means that the first daly cycle of the new intermediate cycle will be right translated. it is the second daily cycle that could form as left translated and fail. That should happen as the dollar is rallying out of its forth coming yearly cycle low.
  
  Reply
ALEX

October 26, 2012

thanks L.M. Good reminders about the need for trend line breaks , waiting for the dollar to roll , and for things to prove themselves ( but what a beautiful reversal candle we’ll have on a WEEKLY CHART for Miners if it closes up today ). . 😉

Reply
vorfahrt

October 26, 2012

Patience is well warranted. Overnight I think we got the US$ trend line break above 80.42 but not yet equities <1396 in S&P.

Reply
1. angelo851
  
  October 26, 2012
  
  I don’t believe the US$ broke 80.42 yet. I see a high of 80.375.
  
  Reply
  1. vorfahrt
    
    October 26, 2012
    
    Ok, thanks.
2. jeff the flee
  
  October 26, 2012
  
  we track spot price. Be carefule if you are watching futures. Compare apples and apples, not apples and oranges .
  
  Reply
bernard tan

October 27, 2012

so do the overnight futures count , or they have to be in market time when we look at the prices , bec i have seen the snp break 1396 overnight , and are the spot price only during market time
thx

Reply
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