If it looks like a duck …

October 18, 2012

It looks like the dollar printed a daily cycle low on Wednesday.

The dollar formed a swing low on Thursday.
While a swing low does not guarantee a DCL. You cannot have a DCL without a swing low.

Still at 23 days, Wednesday was in the latter part of the timing band for a low.
A break of the declining trend line confirms a daily cycle low.

Now the Schaff Trend Cycle did move lower during the primary decline into a DCL.
The STC normally tags the 25 line 80 % of the time as the dollar prints a low.
This just may be one of the 20% of the time it does not.

We still await confirmation that September held an intermediate cycle low.
With the fresh legs of a new daily cycle the dollar still needs to break above 80.42 to break above the declining trend line and form a weekly swing low.

Gold responded by reversing at the declining cycle trend line.
We should now see gold trend lower over the next 2 – 8 days as it seeks out its intermediate cycle low.

Thursday was day 32 for the daily equity cycle.

Stocks broke below the daily cycle trend line last week.
It has since bounced on the recent dollar weakness and kissed the underside of the daily cycle trend line. We see today a reversal off that trend line.

Thursday was day 32. Stocks still are 3 days shy of their timing band for a daily cycle low.
I suspect the dollar rallying out of a daily cycle low will cause equities to break below 1425.53 as it seeks out its daily cycle low.

8 responses to “If it looks like a duck …”

Paul_K

October 18, 2012

Thanks for your report. I look here daily.
Where would you draw the intermediate trend line for gold? http://www21.adrive.com/filemanager/downloadfile/64402540

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  October 19, 2012
  
  Paul,
  I could not view your link.
  It is easier to see the intermediate trend line on the weekly chart.
  
  Typically, the intermediate cycle trend line is drawn off the cycle low.
  If there is a retest of that low, then the trend line is drawn off the retest.
  Sometimes the accelerated trend line is significant.
  
  Reply
  1. Paul_K
    
    October 19, 2012
    
    Thank you for your response. My chart had virtually the same trendlines. http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/209/goldictrendline.jpg/
    Would the RSI, Macd, and STO give us a “clue” as to which trendline will likely play out?
Jack Dog

October 18, 2012

Likesmoney,
Thanks for the report. Looks like this IC may have more clearity. The Big Truck is still in the garage and gas tank topped off!
Jack Dog

Reply
Cédric,

October 19, 2012

Nice work LM, very helpful, thank you for sharing.
Cédric from Paris,

Reply
ALEX

October 19, 2012

As usual , Very much appreciate your cycle work…you have really tracked this well many markets, in many time frames.

[URL=http://www.sherv.net/big.thumbs-emoticon-2708.html][IMG]http://www.sherv.net/cm/emoticons/yes/big-thumbs-up-smiley-emoticon.gif[/IMG][/URL]

ALEX

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jeff the flee

October 19, 2012

paul
once we are in the timeing band for a low , you can watch everything for a clue. Although if you buy the swing at a ic low then you will not take much of a drawdown.
Hopefully LM will have the blue light special notification when its time. ( did i just date myself ?)

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