Gold Going On Sale …

October 16, 2012

October 5 th looked like the dollar may have printed an early daily cycle low .

However, the Shaff Trend Cycle (STC) did not recognize it as a daily cycle low.

Not all daily cycle lows correspond with a STC tag of the 25 line.
But a high percentage of tags of the 25 line on the STC are daily cycle lows.
That had me suspicious, but I wanted to see if the dollar would get an upside break out.
The dollar began to break down in the overnight.

The peak on 10/01 was exceeded by a higher high on 10/11.
An upside break would have confirmed that this was a new daily cycle.

But with the Shaff Trend Cycle not confirming 10/05 as a daily cycle low in combination of the dollar breaking down, leads me to conclude that this will be day 22. That only leaves several days for the dollar to break to a new low to print a daily cycle low.

Gold continued to correct on Monday

Monday saw gold break below the previous daily cycle low.
At day 13, gold still has 5 more days until it reaches its timing band for a low with a window that extends two weeks to print that low.
By breaking below the previous daily cycle low, gold has confirmed that this is an intermediate (weekly) cycle decline.

We should see the dollar bottom soon and the rally out of the low should send gold to its final leg down of its intermediate cycle low.

Once gold reaches its timing band, we will watch for a swing low accompanied by a
declining trend line break to confirm a new daily cycle.

Then it will be time to go shopping …

5 responses to “Gold Going On Sale …”

Trond

October 16, 2012

LM, isn’t it the case that the last DC of an IC is supposed to be LT (just as now) and also the DC ending an IC is usually also shorter than average? An example that resembles today is the last DC before the parabolic rise started after 5th of June 2011. It was very short, 14 days and LT. The dive into an ICL also lasted only one DC then, as probably will be the case now. (And it broke about 40$ below the 50dma..)

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&st=2011-03-28&en=2011-08-14&id=p89316902592

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1. ALEX
  
  October 16, 2012
  
  TROND … Thanks for this reminder ( we had a 14 day L.T. cycle at the end of that IC) and Chart, I look forward to L.M.’s thoughts.
  
  A thought that I had (I hope this doesnt in any way sound nit-picky ) is that we are in the first leg up in a C-wave – following the long consolidation after the plunge that some call a D-Wave drop (the A-B wave = consolidation) . Would it be best to compare where we are now with Oct 2008 to say April 2009 , since we’ve endured a similar drop and consolidation? The DC action ( more strength coming out of THAT kind of low?) may act differently coming out of that (stronger and hold up better? weaker? ) and also around the 50SMA.
  
  I am looking at it now , but I’m not as good with ‘Cycles’ as you ,Trond and others, so I find it harder to go back and know where to start my counts and finish each DC to find the answer to your above question in 2008’s ICL (was the final DC Shorter? And L.T.?).
  
  Any thoughts appreciated
  
  Reply
ALEX

October 16, 2012

Thanks L.M.—And thanks for the reply to my question yesterday.

Reply
Jack Dog

October 16, 2012

Likesmoney,
Was going to ask about the Shaff Trend for the $. You did and thanks.
Jack Dog

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BAC: Cycle indicates a buy… | Wall Street Stocks

October 30, 2012

[…] The 9/14 Weekend ReportUpdate On CyclesCycle 2 BACK! TMT-PHASE TWODarkest Before the Dawn …Third Time The CharmGet Ready to ActLiving on Spongecake …Looking at the Dollar …Benchmarking for Revenue Cycle Success: Percentage of A/R Greater than 120 DaysGold Going On Sale … […]

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