Cycle Trading

The daily dollar cycle has a cycle peak on Monday, day 11.

On Friday, day 15, the dollar printed a possible reversal candle.
The dollar forms a swing low with a break above 79.46.
If that were to happen along with a break of the declining (black) cycle trend line then we would be forced to consider that the dollar printed an early 15 day daily cycle low.

Why the dollar may have printed an early daily cycle low is because it is still trying to confirm a new intermediate cycle.

The weekly chart currently has a low printed on week 19.
Three weeks later, we are still awaiting either a break lower or a break higher forming a swing low.
If a daily swing low forms on the daily chart then that keeps the possibility that this is week three of a new intermediate cycle.
A weekly swing low and a break of the (black) declining trend line confirms a new intermediate cycle.

A week 22 scenario prevails if the daily cycle should continue lower.

October is month 8 for the dollar’s yearly cycle.
The dollar has formed an accelerated (red) declining trend line after peaking on month 5.
The dollar is running into a strong at the 79 support level.
Breaking below the 79 level would likely lead to a failed yearly cycle.

Stocks

The current daily equity cycle peak stands at day 8.

Friday was day 23 and equities printed a possible reversal candle.
A swing high followed by a trend line break would signal that the daily cycle is in decline.

If the dollar is in the process of forming a daily cycle low then a correction in stocks could lead to an intermediate cycle correction.

The past three weeks equities have been consolidating a 14 week run.
The weekly chart shows that stocks are right up against the accelerated (red) trend line.
A break of that trend line would be bearish.
A break of the black weekly cycle trend line confirms an intermediate decline.

It is undeniable that each round of QE has had a lesser impact.
Equities went from peaking after 12 months to peaking in 10 months to peaking in 6 months.
A back test of the 1400 level would almost be expected. A break below the 1400 level would spell trouble for the yearly equity cycle.

Gold

Friday was day 7 for the daily gold cycle.

Friday saw gold tag the rising trend line.
A failure of the rising trend line would signal that the daily cycle and quite possibility the intermediate cycle is in decline.

The weekly chart shows gold consolidating just below the 1800 level.
The last two times gold tested this level, gold reversed the following week.
A breakthrough of the 1800 level would signal a week 10 scenario.
A rejection by the 1800 level signals a week 20 scenario.

The monthly chart reflects what we see on the weekly chart.
Gold is testing the 1800 level.
A break above the 1800 level shows little in the way of resistance until the 1900 level.

Miners

Friday was day 7 for the daily Miner cycle.

The Miners appear to be in ascending triangle that is coming to a peak.
A break below the rising red trend line would signal a daily cycle decline and possibility an intermediate cycle decline.

The weekly cycle is similar to gold’s where a break higher indicates week 10.
A break lower indicates week 20.

The monthly chart shows that the Miners have broke above the declining yearly trend line confirming a new yearly cycle.
October shows the Miners back testing the declining trend line.

The CRB/CCI

Office memo: the CRB is temporarily off line.

The CCI peaked on Tuesday and has since been held in check by the (red) declining trend line off the 9/17 candle.

The daily cycle stands at day 7 and could in the process of setting the daily cycle trend line.
A break below the (black) trend line would signal the daily cycle decline.

The CCI printed a weekly reversal candle on week 16, which is in the timing band for an intermediate cycle low.

The CCI formed a swing low this week.

A break above the declining red trend line would certainly confirm that this was week 1 of a new intermediate cycle.

October is month 4 for the yearly cycle.
While the CCI did poke through the declining trend line, it is running into significant resistance at the 600 level.

The CCI spent 6 months trying to break through this level before dropping down into its three year low.

Bonds

Friday was day 15 for the daily bond cycle.

Bonds have entered the timing band for printing a daily cycle low.
A break above 121.68 forms a swing low.

Bonds intermediate cycle lacks clarity.

Only twice since 2003 has TLT’s weekly cycle exceeded 24 weeks.
Both times occurred during the yearly cycle decline.
The currently yearly cycle stands at 7 months so it is too early for a yearly cycle low.

That has me thinking that the intermediate cycle low printed on week 21.
Should bonds break above the black declining trend line then that means the intermediate cycle low printed on week 25, making this week – week 3.

October makes month 7 for the yearly cycle.
The yearly cycle currently hosts a peak on month 4 and a swing high formed on month 5.
The yearly cycle decline looks to be in progress.
90% of TLT yearly cycles prints between 9 & 13 months.