Wiggle Room …

September 26, 2012

Today was day 8 and the dollar tested the 80 level, but closed below it.

While 80% of failed daily cycles peak on day 8 or sooner, there is still a day or 2 wiggle room to still print a failed daily cycle.
While there is wiggle room for the dollar to move higher, bonds are right up against it.

Wednesday was also day 8 for bonds.
As you can see, Bonds are right up against the intermediate cycle trend line.
If bonds are turned back here, then it is likely that they are still caught in the grips of an intermediate cycle decline.

A break above the declining trend line would confirm a new intermediate cycle.

Miners are hinting at more upside.

The Miners gapped lower and then reversed higher into the close.

Wednesday was day 18 for the Miners daily cycle.
The Miners have entered the timing band to print a low.
A break above 507.30 forms a swing low off of today’s reversal candle.

If the Miners get some follow through, that will likely signal the start of a new daily cycle and the Miners will be off to the races …

9 responses to “Wiggle Room …”

nikeboy 2008

September 26, 2012

Thank you for your daily update

Reply
Trond

September 27, 2012

Thanks for your analysis! An interesting parallell to today is ~5th of November 2010 when QE2 was launched. The dollar (as now) almost immideately started a rally, that one lasted 3 weeks going almost 6$ up to an intermediate top, while gold and the miners, after the initial 1-2 day euphoria, went mostly sideways to down. Then as now nobody understood why the PM’s didnt react more. (However I don’t think the similarity will continue much longer this time)

http://scharts.co/Qp7CZt

Reply
ALEX

September 27, 2012

I dont know if you can answer this L.M., but IF Miners start a new daily cycle….do you consider it the 3rd dally cycle of an ICL? If so…are you expecting it to rally a bit longer or rather fail (L.Translated?). I have more questions, but thats enough for now : ]

OK..one more, I know you did a good study of Miners…do they tend to have an avg ‘peak” day on a 3rd daily cycle? (Wondering if they tend to be strong or weak)?

Thanks !!

Alex

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  September 27, 2012
  
  Alex,
  
  Great (tough) question.
  
  Essentially the question is was week 10 an intermediate cycle low or not?
  
  If the dollar rolls over here, stretching the intermediate dollar cycle, then I would say that this is the 2nd daily cycle.
  That would mean week 10 was an intermediate cycle low.
  
  If the dollar breaks higher, then this will likely be the 4th daily cycle.
  
  Reply
  1. ALEX
    
    September 27, 2012
    
    THX L.M.
    
    In the back of my mind I was also thinking we may have just had 3rd and 4th (as in the last chart) But it didn’t make sense to me that they were so much more powerful than 1st and 2nd…Its a good time to ‘stay tuned’-Thanks!
    Alex
Wednesday, September 26, 2012: Abbey Road – Page 5

September 27, 2012

[…] 56 Wiggle Room … | Cycle Trading […]

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jeff the flee

September 27, 2012

tsi on the dollar is strong, crossed over the zero and just the opposit for gold

Reply
jeff the flee

September 27, 2012

trond…. i wanted to see your chart, but could not make the linke work, even copy and paste did not work

Reply
Trond

September 27, 2012

Jeff, what you say about the dollar send cold chills down my spine, because it has visibly put in a short term bullish reversal pattern against both the Canadian & Australian dollar. The two commodity and ‘risk on’ currencies. If that (hopefully not) transpires it will mean an impending second leg down both in the stockmarket, commodities and especially miners after a bounce. (Maybe some more of Nov 2010 still will continue repeating for a little while?)

Here the link in long version (the above worked for me). But it is just as good just to look up the multi year $ in one of LM’s long term charts, or stockcharts, and see what it did in November 2010.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&st=2008-12-20&en=1975-12-31&id=p49325468194

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