Point of No Return …

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I want to start of by looking at the weekly (intermediate) dollar cycle.

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The dollar printed a low 2 weeks ago. This week is either week 2 or week 21 of the intermediate cycle.

A break above week 19’s intra week high of 80.43 would form a weekly swing low and a break of the declining trend line would confirm a new intermediate cycle.

Tuesday was day 7 for the daily dollar cycle.
The dollar appears to be in a bear flag.

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A downside break would mean that the dollar is still caught in the grips of the intermediate cycle sell off with a possible 2 – 4 before printing a bottom.
That would extend the weekly cycle to possibly to week 23 – week 25.

An upside break suggests that this daily cycle is also a new intermediate cycle.
A break above the declining (black) trend line would confirm a new intermediate cycle.

My studies show that over 80% of left translated dollar daily cycles peak by day 8.
And daily cycles that peak at 12 days or beyond are usually right translated.
The dollar is fast approaching the point of no return on the daily cycle.

The equity daily cycle may give us a hint on what the dollar is doing.

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Tuesday was day 15 for the daily equity cycle.
Right translated daily cycles tend to form a half cycle low between days 15 & 20.
That also fits in with so often we see the initial break from a coil being false followed by reversing and trending the other way.

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The Miners are on day 17 of their daily cycle. They are now in the timing and to print a low over the next 10 days.

Their daily cycle low should coincide with a dollar swing high
But we need to keep in mind that often times the Miners do sniff out the dollar swing a day early and begin to rally ahead of the dollar.

Nailing down whether the dollar is still in the grips of an intermediate cycle decline or actually in the first daily cycle of a new weekly cycle is the piece that we need to clarify the picture …

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10 responses to “Point of No Return …”

  1. vorfahrt Avatar
    vorfahrt

    Thanks for this awesome report! Joe

  2. ALEX Avatar
    ALEX

    Great update, L.M.—and Thanks!

    Alex

  3. IheartMrs.Seaver Avatar
    IheartMrs.Seaver

    Thanks, LM.

  4. nikeboy 2008 Avatar
    nikeboy 2008

    Thank you for your report.

  5. Jack Dog Avatar
    Jack Dog

    Likesmoney,
    Thanks for your concern, still doing pretty good for an old ____!
    Now that oil has gotten a little cheaper, filled the ‘BIg DUMP Truck’ all the way. Hopefully this next trip is going to be a little longer, so went to the potty and packed an over night bag just in case. Just don’t think the $ has enough in it to get above 80.00, Ben has destroyed it and Europe is practically matching ‘tit for tat’. The report that I can not find said it would happen and thus far it is slowly getting there. Feel for my kids and grand kids. Have each of my kids estabilishing a core three years ago and set up leaps for the grand kids. Sad to say if all happens so many will be left behind. But like they say,
    ” Told you so. ”
    Great Report Again.
    Jack Dog

  6. MES Avatar
    MES

    I’m new to your blog. Really like your work. Years ago, I went to several Jim Hurst seminars. Believe strongly in cycles. Do you have current charts on 30 yr bonds? I found the post about TLT.
    Thanks for all your work, MES

    1. likesmoneystudies Avatar
      likesmoneystudies

      MES,

      I am glad that you like my work.
      I am sorry that I do not have any charts on 30yr bonds.

  7. […] Point of No Return … […]

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