Cycle Trading

Back when the Miners formed a swing low off the 8/30 pivot, I was quick to label 8/30 as a daily cycle low.

Wednesday was day 13 for the Miners daily cycle.
As we can see the chart still looks bullish.

It has been troubling me that the daily cycles for the Miners and gold seemed to be a bit out of sync.

Gold and the Miners are usually closely correlated, however I did not look at the following possibility earlier. But based on the Miners daily cycle I now believe that gold is on day 14.

Two reasons why I initially dismissed 8/30 as the start of a new daily cycle for gold:
1) Gold was too early in the cycle at day 12 to print a low.
2) The daily cycle low (lowest point after the cycle peak) should not be higher than the cycle peak.

But as noted with the first chart, the Miners clearly printed a daily cycle low on 8/30.

I have not seen this type of cycle low before. But, recognizing it as a cycle low allows the current daily cycle to come into focus.

Gold is on day 14 and has yet to enter the timing band for a daily cycle low.

This new labeling of gold’s last daily cycle does not clear up the dollar’s daily cycle count

But the dollar did form a swing low today and broke the accelerated declining trend line.

If the dollar breaks below Friday’s low of 78.60, then we will have to entertain the possibility of this being a new daily cycle peaking on day 3.

The CRB Index does support the notion that today is day 3 of a new dollar cycle.

The CRB is deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low.

There is a clear break of the daily cycle trend line.
Now a break above 311.42 forms a swing low and quite likely a new daily cycle.

I think that this new labeling will help us going forward to better spot profitable opportunities.