Cycle Trading

The dollar looked to have printed a daily cycle low last Thursday.
A swing low was formed on Friday.

The dollar could trend sideways until Ben speaks
But for now, it did look like a new daily cycle was all but confirmed and then the dollar printed a big, red ugly candle on Tuesday.

Still the dollar has not broke below Thursday’s low so this is still quite possibly day 3 of the new daily cycle.

A brake of the declining cycle trend line confirms a new daily cycle.

The dollar’s indecisiveness is reflected in equities.

Tuesday was day 24 for the equity daily cycle.

At this point we do not know if stocks are moving into a half cycle low or potentially moving into a into a daily cycle low.

I suspect that whether or not stocks have begun their primary cycle decline depends on if the dollar’s daily cycle will roll over or not this week.

Until stocks break above the declining cycle trend line we have a cycle in decline.

Gold’s daily cycle is beginning to get long in the tooth.

Day 26 saw Gold form a swing high on Tuesday.
A break of the cycle trend line will confirm gold moving into a daily cycle low.
So if gold does break the cycle trend line, there are not many days left in the timing band which suggests any decline will be brief.

Based on equities and precious metals, it looks as though the dollar daily cycle low is behind us.

So what happens if the dollar breaks below last Thursday’s low.
Well if it did so on Wednesday, then that would make it day 29.
Any swing low on the dollar printed after a new lower low is printed almost certainly would mark the daily cycle low.

I guess it should be expected that the market will not do much until Ben’s speech at Jackson Hole.

I have to wonder what Bernanke has up his sleeve …